Dear Editor,
Trinidad holds local elections on Monday, August 14, to choose 141 councillors for 14 local authorities. Some one million voters are registered to vote to choose 141 candidates distributed in fourteen local authorities that vary in size. The local government’s term of office is three years. In the last election, the major parties, PNM and UNC, each won seven.
The UNC should be running away with the election, given the PNM’s unpopularity. The approval rating of the Government is in the 30s percentile; yet, this year’s outcome is unpredictable.
Unlike Guyana, which has 80 local authorities with some 1010 seats, Trinidad has 14 local entities and just 141 seats, all constituency first past the post-based. Each local authority also has four aldermen allocated by PR system similar to Guyana’s PR.
In Trinidad, there is opposition and distrust in electoral integrity. The ruling PNM last October passed a law to extend the term of office for a year. The law was challenged in court by a voter, contending that Government cannot unilaterally extend the term of councillors. The lower court and Court of Appeal ruled in favour of the Government. The Privy Council, the final court of appeal for Trinidad and Tobago, reversed the Trinidad courts’ ruling last May, forcing the Government to hold elections within three months. Monday’s elections are unpredictable.
Since early July, this writer has been conducting a tracking opinion poll to determine popular support. I have been conducting surveys in Trinidad since the 1980s. The poll has interviewed hundreds of likely voters since Jack Warner entered the fray on the side of UNC a couple of weeks ago.
Respondents represent the demographic composition of the population. Jack’s entry has energized and excited the UNC base, and has not triggered a similar response from the PNM base. Gary Griffith, former National Security Minister and Police Commissioner, has also shored up the UNC base. Many traditional UNC supporters who were not interested in voting a month ago now indicate they will vote. A month ago, only 30 per cent of the population expressed an interest in casting ballots, with a majority going for the UNC. That turnout number has inched up, with most going to UNC. This could help the UNC in competitive marginal seats in the local authorities of Sangre Grande, San Fernando, Siparia, and Chaguanas.
Ordinarily, the PNM, which won a majority of seats since 1983 LGE, would easily win more seats overall. But in this election, the ethnic supporters of PNM are very discontented with their party, some 70 per cent telling interviewers of NACTA that they won’t vote. A higher percentage of UNC ethnic supporters, approaching 38%, said they will vote. The ethnic distribution of the population between the two largest groups is almost balanced. This places the UNC at an advantage to win the popular vote. But unlike in Guyana, Trinidad has a first past the post system – the largest number of votes in a constituency wins the seat.
The PNM lost the popular votes in 2019, but won a majority of seats because of the way electoral boundaries were/are drawn. There has not been any shift in boundaries since then. The UNC Alliance has closed the gap with PNM in every seat, except for a handful, where the candidate makes a difference favouring the PNM. So, a low PNM turnout will result in a defeat in a marginal seat.
There are a dozen such seats, making them very close to call. Minor parties are also polling votes, although not enough to win seats. They are the dark horses that could create some upsets and/or impact competitive marginal constituencies.
The PNM has a better equipped and oiled election-day machinery than the UNC. The challenge it faces is convincing its base to come out to vote. The UNC base is energized and excited, and may not require many vehicle resources to come out to cast ballots.
The latest findings show UNC retaining local authorities in its strongholds – some six of the seven it holds, including in Siparia and Chaguanas. PNM is projected to also retain six of the seven it holds. Sangre Grande and San Fernando are toss-ups. In San Fernando, PNM leads in four seats, with UNC leading in three seats, and two seats are toss-ups. In Grande, PNM and UNC lead in three seats, with two seats being toss-ups.
Turnout is benefitting UNC, because PNM supporters appear turned off and malcontented. If PNM is able to arrest or turn around the apathy, it will retain Sando (5-4, 6-3) and capture Grande, or tie the latter 4-4.
This is a landmark election that will have a significant bearing not only on the local election, but the general election in 2025. If UNC loses, pressure will be on the UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar to step down. If PNM loses a corporation, it still has two more years in office to rebrand itself. PNM turnout will determine the outcome of the elections, making it unpredictable.
Minor parties like NTA, PEP, and PDP are not out of the contest. They could create upsets in safe seats in PNM strongholds because of widespread dissatisfaction, and/or decide the outcome in several marginal seats, including Barataria and seats in Chaguanas, Tunapuna, and elsewhere.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram
