473,000 cases predicted by October if curfew ends – PAHO rep

With authorities under the new administration intensifying testing across the country, the number of COVID-19 cases being recorded is naturally rising.
But as authorities contemplate reopening the economy, experts are warning that the lifting of the national curfew can result in a major spike in positive cases by October.

In fact, the internationally approved model designed by the Pan-American Health Organisation (PAHO) to calculate the projected number of COVID-19 cases shows that some 473,000 cases are predicted by October if the curfew is not extended.
This was according to PAHO Country Representative, Dr William Adu-Krow as he assessed the local situation. He said cases would increase further with the reopening of the airports.
“No region is spared…If the curfew ends at the end of this month and the way things are going with the increasing numbers that we are getting; we will have by October ending 473,000 cases. If the curfew ends and we open the airport, assuming we get one case per day from importation, that number moves from 473,000 to 482,000,” he shared.
Another model focuses on the extension of the curfew into mid-September, which reduces the estimated number of positive cases. At the end of August, the current 21:00h to 05:00h (9pm to 5am) curfew will expire. An extension of two weeks will reduce the positives to 25 per cent with about 115,000 cases.
Dr Adu-Krow said 85 per cent of contract cases could be treated at home while 15 per cent would require hospitalisation. He said the situation would become worrying, given that the country would not have the capacity to treat everyone at a hospice.
“That number comes to 3482 and the ICU [number] alone is 940. We don’t have the capacity to contain that. However, if the curfew and airport opening is pushed all the way to September ending, the number of cases we’re looking at is 16,850,” the representative explained.
The PAHO representative has contended that the longer the curfew remained in place, the fewer chances the virus has of spreading. Guyana has so far recorded over 1000 positive cases, including 32 deaths.
However, he noted that the country cannot be under lockdown forever, as livelihoods and activities must be continued.
“There is something to be gained by delaying. The question is ‘Can we delay all the time?’. The answer is no. There has got to be a point in time that we have to balance our lives with livelihoods. People are losing their income and people are also dying. Therefore, where do we find the common ground? I think COVID-19 is going to be with us for a long time and, therefore, it is high time that we find a middle ground,” Dr Adu-Krow said.
He said the middle ground ensured that everybody could leave their home, under the condition that they wear a mask. One of his recommendations was to change the start of the curfew from 21:00h (9pm) back to 18:00h (6pm) for better monitoring.
Back in April, PAHO had already formulated their statistics, which showed that 10,777 cases were the likely figure by June 15 if the lockdown and curfew were indeed relaxed. However, these numbers were in the event that the country did nothing to curtail the spread.