Article IV Consultation: IMF team commends Guyana’s economic progress

A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Alina Carare and Lusine Lusinyan, recently completed their 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana. The consultation, held both virtually and in-person in Georgetown from February 24 to March 7, 2025, involved discussions with high-level Government officials, including Vice-President (VP) Dr Bharrat Jagdeo, Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh, and Central Bank Governor Dr Gobind Ganga, as well as stakeholders from the private sector, labour unions, and banks.
In a statement released on Friday, the IMF team commended Guyana’s impressive economic progress. Over the last few years, the country has experienced an extraordinary transformation, driven primarily by rapidly expanding oil production, robust non-oil output, and significant public infrastructure investments. The country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, averaging 47 per cent between 2022 and 2024, was the highest in the world, with projections for 2025 indicating continued strong performance. Real GDP is expected to grow by approximately 10¼ per cent, while non-oil GDP is projected to increase by about 13 per cent.
Despite this impressive growth, the IMF warned that potential risks to the economic outlook remain, including overheating pressures that could push inflation higher and cause the real exchange rate to appreciate excessively. The IMF team highlighted the potential upside of additional oil discoveries and investments aimed at strengthening energy resilience, which could further support Guyana’s economic trajectory. However, challenges such as commodity price volatility and climate-related shocks could pose challenges to future growth.
The IMF team praised the Government’s fiscal policies, particularly its focus on ensuring macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. The budget deficit, which stood at 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, is projected to decrease to just below 5 per cent in 2025, supported by increased oil revenues. The team also emphasised the importance of closing the fiscal deficit by 2031, coupled with measures to enhance public financial management and improve the efficiency of public spending.
Monetary policy was also deemed appropriately tight, with the IMF urging continued vigilance to prevent inflationary pressures. The team recommended strengthening the monetary policy toolkit and improving liquidity management in the banking system to maintain price stability. It also suggested a reassessment of the exchange rate framework in the medium term to ensure continued macroeconomic resilience as Guyana’s economy continues to evolve.
In terms of financial stability, the IMF called for improvements to Guyana’s macroprudential framework to better respond to potential shocks. Additionally, the team welcomed ongoing efforts to strengthen anti-money laundering (AML), counter-financing of terrorism (CFT), and anti-corruption measures, noting significant progress in these areas.
Guyana’s commitment to sustainable development was also highlighted, particularly its pioneering work in climate policy. The country is advancing its Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS), focusing on forest conservation and biodiversity. The IMF also supported Guyana’s efforts to diversify its energy sources, including the Gas-to-Energy (GtE) Project, which is expected to bolster electricity provision and contribute to a cleaner energy matrix.
The IMF’s statement noted recognition of Guyana’s strides toward inclusive growth and economic diversification. With a strong emphasis on upgrading labour skills, addressing labour shortages, and increasing women’s participation in the workforce, the Government is positioning the country for sustained economic expansion.