BoG foresees stability in foreign exchange rate

– between Guyana and US currency

As the contention persists over a shortage in foreign currency, particular the US dollar, Governor General of the Bank of Guyana (BoG), Dr Gobind Ganga, maintains there will be stability in the foreign exchange market going forward this year.

He expressed this optimism in the Bank’s 2016 Annual Report, which was submitted to the Finance Minister on March 31.

According to Dr Ganga, “The exchange rate of the Guyana dollar to the US dollar is expected to remain relatively stable due to a net supply of foreign exchange to the market as a result of an improved balance of payment position.”

He pointed out that BoG is projecting purchases of US$406.4 million from the Guyana Gold Board (GGB) and the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo). He added that sales to accommodate imports and debt servicing are projected at US$603.9 million.

“Foreign exchange flows to the market are expected to adequately cover imports and support a stable exchange rate,” he noted.

Reflecting on the developments of the Foreign Exchange Market during 2016, the Governor General outlined in the report that the total volume of foreign exchange transactions increased by 11.8 per cent to US$6926.2 million, there was a net purchase of US$77.6 million. He added that the market was impacted by increases in transactions in most segments of the market, cambios, hard currency, foreign currency accounts, and Caricom currency.

In addition, money transfer transactions were valued at US$186.9 million or 27.7 per cent below 2015 levels, while higher net purchases caused the Guyana dollar to remain stable against the United States dollar at G$206.50, he pointed out.

Dr Ganga went on to outline that total foreign currency transactions increased by 11.8 per cent to US$6926.2 million from US$6194.2 million in 2015; while purchases and sales in the market were US$3501.9 million and US$3424.3 million respectively. He added that net purchases were US$77.6 million compared with net purchases of US$93.0 million in 2015.

He continued that the licensed bank and non-bank cambios, which accounted for 44.4 per cent of the total volumes, recorded a 9.2 per cent increase in turnover to US$3108.6 million.

The BoG Head noted that the combined transactions of the six bank cambios were US$3002.4 million, an increase of US$253.9 million or 9.2 per cent over the 2015 level. He said that the interbank transactions totalled US$25.1 million, a decrease of US$50.8 million or 66.9 per cent from the preceding year; while the 13 non-bank cambios’ transactions amounted to US$106.2 million, an increase of US$8.6 million or 8.8 per cent. Non-bank cambios’ market share remained negligible at 3.5 per cent.

The Governor General further stated that hard currency transactions conducted at the Bank of Guyana totalled US$922.8 million, an increase of US$107.1 million or 13.1 per cent over the previous year. Purchases and sales were US$460.3 million and US$462.5 million respectively, reflecting an increase in receipts of US$87.5 million or 23.5 per cent, he said.

The Bank, Dr Ganga added, also recorded an increase in net hard currency outflows of US$19.6 million or 4.4 per cent. He mentioned that fuel imports constituted 56.6 per cent of total payments.

The BoG boss said the Bank sold US$28.2 million to commercial banks, an increase of US$22 million over the 2015 level. He noted too that the Banks’ share of all transactions declined marginally to 13.3 per cent from 13.2 per cent in 2015.

“The balances on approved foreign currency accounts increased by 19.1 per cent to US$2683.4 million. The major category of activities included non-resident transactions, mining and dredging, insurance/finance, fishery, rice and shipping… The Bank approved applications for the 11 new foreign currency accounts in 2016,” the report noted.

Moreover, as it relates to the exchange rates, Dr Ganga posited that the weighted mid-rate, based on the rates of the three largest banks’ turnover, remained stable at G$206.50 at the end of 2016; while the un-weighted mid-rate using the same method depreciated by 0.12 per cent to G$205.75 compared with G$205.50 in 2015.

“The commercial banks and non-bank cambios average buying and selling rates were higher during the review period. The commercial banks cambios average buying and selling rates were G$207.21 and G$209.74 from G$206.67 and G$209.49 respectively in 2015. The non-bank cambios’ average buying and selling rates were G$206.40 and G$208.04 from G$205.42 and G$208.68 respectively,” he stated.

He went on to explain that the disparity between the buying rates of the bank and non-bank cambios contracted from G$1.25 to G$0.81 in 2016, with the difference in the selling rates being higher at G$1.70 from G$0.81 in 2015. The Governor General noted too that the average market spread was G$2.08 compared with G$3.04 in 2015. The bank and non-bank spreads were lower at G$2.53 and G$1.64 from G$2.83 and G3.26 respectively in the previous year.

“In the cambio market, the majority of foreign currency transactions involved the United States dollar accounting for 96.1 per cent of the total trades. The Canadian dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro each held 1.6 per cent, 1.5 per cent, and 0.8 per cent respectively of the market shares,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Caricom currencies traded on the market increased to US$24.4 million or 20.8 per cent in 2016, with the main currencies transacted on the market being Barbados dollar, Trinidad and Tobago dollar and the Eastern Caribbean dollar.

With regards to money transfer activities, the BoG Head disclosed that five new agencies were licensed for a total number of certified agents to 223. The aggregated value of transfers by money transfer entities amounted to US$186.9 million in 2016, representing 27.6 per cent over the previous year. Inbound and outbound transactions were US$134.5 million and US$52.4 million respectively; with the highest volume of transfers occurred in the months of April, July and December, 2016.

(Vahnu Manikchand)