Budget 2026 projects 16.2% economic growth, strong gains across oil, non-oil, sectors

…economy expanded 19.3% in 2025

…non-oil economy expanded by 14.3%

Minister with Responsibility for Finance, Dr Ashni Singh, on Monday announced another trillion-dollar budget as he revealed that the Government has budgeted a whopping $1.558 trillion for Budget 2026, which includes a laundry list of fiscal measures particularly targeting development and cost of living alleviation.

The budget will be funded with no new taxes, while the transfer from the Natural Resources Fund (NRF) to the national budget is estimated at $495 billion for 2026, along with projected carbon credit inflows of $49.7 billion. Themed “Putting People First” in the dome of the Arthur Chung Conference Centre (ACCC), the budget comes as the country is projected to see a 16.2 per cent in growth, on top of the 19.3 per cent growth that the country experienced in 2025. The non-oil economy is projected to grow another 10.8 per cent in 2026 after a growth of 14.3 per cent was experienced in 2025, largely driven by growth in the agriculture, mining, construction and services sectors. “Guyana’s real economic growth is expected to remain strong, reflecting the pro-growth policies of our Government and the supportive policy frameworks we have put in place. The oil and gas sector will continue to be the main driver of overall growth, supported by sustained dynamism in the broader non-oil economy,” Dr Singh. Meanwhile, inflation for this year is targeted at 2.5 per cent, after 2025 saw a 2.5 per cent inflation. The oil and gas sector is projected to expand further by 17.9 per cent this year, after having already expanded by 21 per cent in 2025.

Sectoral performance
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is projected to grow by some 7.6 per cent this year, while the gold and bauxite mining subsectors are expected to expand by 5.4 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively, in 2026. In gold mining, declarations for this year are targeted at 510,450 ounces, with higher projected declarations from all categories of operators. Bauxite production is targeted at approximately 4.8 million tonnes for 2026, with higher output expected from both large producers in the industry. In other mining and quarrying, growth of 10.3 per cent is projected, driven by sustained expansion in sand and stone declarations to meet demand from the ongoing construction boom. Growth in the manufacturing sector is projected at 12.9 per cent this year, with expansion expected across all subsectors – sugar manufacturing, rice manufacturing and other manufacturing. These are projected to grow by 67.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 13.5 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile the construction sector is projected to grow by 25.4 per cent this year and growth in the services sector is targeted at 6.8 per cent for 2026. “This year, we expect to see continued growth in key service industries such as financial and insurance activities, wholesale and retail trade and repairs, transport and storage, professional, scientific and technical services and administrative and support services. These industries are projected to grow by 11 per cent, 8 per cent, 5.3 per cent, 23.2 per cent, and 6.9 per cent, respectively,” Dr Singh noted. Total export earnings are again expected to grow by 1.8 per cent to US$20.5 billion, with export earnings from crude oil projected to grow by 0.9 per cent to approximately US$18 billion reflecting projected price moderation. Non-oil exports are projected to increase by 8.6 per cent to US$2.5 billion, mainly on account of higher anticipated export earnings of gold and bauxite, with greater output and favourable prices. In 2025 total export earnings grew by 1.8 per cent which accounted for US$20.1 billion, with an estimated US$2.3 billion in non-oil export earnings.

Tax revenues
Meanwhile, tax revenues are projected to grow by 11.7 per cent to $486.1 billion. Internal revenue, customs and trade and VAT and excise tax collections are projected to grow by 11.4 per cent, 16.5 per cent, and 10.3 per cent, to $282.6 billion, $59.9 billion and $143.6 billion respectively. Non-tax revenues are expected to total $28 billion this year.

For 2025, the construction sector grew by 31 per cent in 2025, with major transformational projects across all industries in both the public and private sectors, while the country saw an overall growth of 20 per cent in the manufacturing sector, 11.5 per cent in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector; eight per cent growth in the services sector, 18 per cent growth in private sector credit.
Economic growth despite challenges
“Despite challenging and uncertain global context, this PPP/C (People’s Progressive Party/Civic) Government’s robust policy framework enabled us to demonstrate consistently that economic growth can be strong and steady in the most testing of circumstances,” Dr Singh noted as he gave an overview of the developments in the country’s domestic economy for 2025. The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector saw increases across all sub sectors, with the sugar sector expanding by 26.5 per cent despite challenges, producing 59,600 tonnes of sugar. “It is well known that production was hampered by heavy rainfall and that this was compounded by labour shortage, low employee turnout and challenges with factory machinery at some estates,” Dr Ashni explained. Meanwhile, despite softer global rice prices and cash flow challenges, the rice subsector delivered another record-breaking year in 2025, expanding by 15.7 per cent in 2025 with the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) reporting some 810,299 tonnes of rice production. “This marked the highest level of production in any year on record,” Dr Ahni remarked. In the subcategory of other crops, there was an 11.1 per cent growth in 2025 with expansion observed across all major crop categories. Production of soya beans and corn grew by 72.1 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively. The fishing industry experienced an estimated growth of 6.5 per cent in 2025, with increases in the fish and aquaculture offsetting a 42 per cent decline in marine shrimp production. The forestry sector expanded by 2.7 per cent in 2025, while the livestock industry expanded by 12.5 per cent. In the services sector there was a 15.5 per cent expansion in financial and insurance activities, 8.6 per cent expansion in wholesale and retail trade and repairs, 6.5 per cent expansion in administrative and support services, and a 6.4 per cent expansion in transport and storage.

Extractive industries
In the extractive industries the mining and quarrying sector expanded by 21 per cent, the oil and gas subsector expanded by 21 per cent. The gold mining industry is estimated to have expanded by 11.6 per cent, with total gold declarations of 484,321 ounces. Declarations from licensed dealerships declined to 121,883 ounces in 2025 however declarations to gold board grew by 45.6 per cent. “The improved gold declaration is supported by tougher compliance and enforcement in the sector,” Dr Singh noted. The bauxite mining industry grew by 53.4 per cent, with some 3.9 million tonnes of bauxite produced. Output from the country’s larger producer grew by 138.4 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes. Manganese production grew by 13.5 per cent, while diamond declarations declined by 24.2 per cent in 2025.
Of the total private sector credit recorded there was an 11.4 per cent increase in the services sector, four per cent increase in the agriculture sector, 29.7 per cent increase in the manufacturing sector, 19 per cent increase in real estate mortgages and 36.9 per cent increase in lending to households. In 2025 the banking sector also continued to reflect improving quality. For the fiscal year, the net domestic credit increased by 30 per cent, with credit to households rising by 36.9 per cent accounting for some $66.1 billion. This was primarily supported by an increase in credit for motor cars, which was $33.3 billion. “This is another additional manifestation for our Government’s ongoing efforts to increase access to financing and promote increased standard of living,” Dr Ashni noted.