Dear Editor,
Nomination Day and the traditional two main political parties stand out; that is, the incumbent and a newer quasi-coalition in the APNU and the WIN Party led by US-sanctioned Azruddin Mohamed. The smaller minnows are also in the race, but as history shows, these will not amount to anything significant to ever cause a shift as to which party will hold the seat of government. The race is still a two-party horse, the PPP and an amalgamation of APNU/WIN.
The crowds that accompanied the various political parties were a visible manifestation of my earlier statement, the largest contingent being the PPP, then a vastly reduced contingent of the WIN and APNU parties. Now, if that number shown translates into votes, then it certainly means the incumbent is well on their way to winning a vast majority in the house.
Now, where will the parties source their votes, or where will the voters come from? The PPP, for their part, has solid support from a wide cross-section of the population. Their votes come from its traditional areas, as well as a sizeable section of the non-traditional Afro-Guyanese vote pool, which is a major shift in the demographics of this country. It is not something that can be ignored and one that will determine who wins or who loses the election.
The Opposition, on the other hand, are having real problems sourcing votes. Norton has been affected negatively by the many defectors from his party into the PPP Party, which is a clear indication that there will be a corresponding shift in APNU’s voting block towards the incumbent. The remainder of the population are also moving over to WIN; this is a worrying trend for APNU, who are at the losing end of the presidential race.
Aubrey Norton would not be too worried about Mohamed gaining votes once those votes come from the PPP strongholds, but that is not forthcoming – all of WIN’s votes are being sourced from APNU strongholds. The point is Norton would like a situation that confronted Ramotar in 2011 to take place again in 2025; he would like to see a hung Parliament evolving from this election and another “Yardfowl house” being assembled again. But that is not happening; there will be a clear winner; there will be no hung Parliament this election.
In the meantime, there is the frantic buying of votes by Azruddin’s party, as he claims one hundred buses of his supporters from Linden were denied entry into Georgetown. The sanctioned man boasts of his ability to use his financial resources. The only twist to that scenario is whether actual vote-buying strategies can translate into real votes come September 1st.
Yours respectfully,
Neil Adams
