It would appear that the politics of Guyana are changing. Long described as “ethnic censuses”, the elections have begun to display a degree of fluidity that suggest while the ethnic factor remains important, ethnicity might no longer be “political destiny”. Ethnicity was one of the identity markers, like religion and tribal affiliation, that went against the individualistic premises of liberalism of free-floating individuals who make rational choices to navigate their social world.
“Identity politics” posits there is no such thing as an “individual” personality outside of society. The feral children left on their own in jungles prove that even those “traits” assumed to be “human” have to be transmitted socially. “Individuals” are always the product of particular social environments that strongly influence the world views of those in those environments. In Guyana, the marker that was activated in the mobilization for votes in democratic elections was “ethnicity”, related to culture and place of origin. “Ethnic politics” was born in Guyana where by the 1960s we ended up with three major parties that represented the three major ethnic blocks – PPP (Indian Guyanese); PNC (African/Mixed Guyanese) and the UF (Portuguese and Amerindians).
However, the same democratic imperative of agglomerating the highest possible numbers of voters to accede to office and power, makes the size of the various ethnic groups in a society critical to the specific type of politics practiced. If one ethnic group forms an absolute majority, very smaller groups will pragmatically become accommodative to the larger group. In Guyana, however, we had a situation where the two major blocs approached each other in size. The PNC, which also had demonstrable support from the key state coercive and bureaucratic institutions, never conceded legitimacy to the majority-supported PPP. When for its own strategic reasons, the US allowed the PNC to gain power, it turned a blind eye to the latter’s rigging elections – along with its supporters.
However, while the PPP returned to office in 1992 via “free and fair” elections, the demographic breakdown between the several ethnic groups inexorably changed because of heavy but differential emigration since the 1970s. No single group controlled an absolute majority: Guyana had become a nation of minorities. As such a new kind of politics was demanded – a politics of downplaying ethnicity and reaching across the divides. This was exemplified in the 2011 election where the PPP could only muster a plurality of votes to secure the presidency and government, but the Opposition APNU and AFC had a majority in the National Assembly.
Logic dictated the latter two parties form a pre-election coalition, which they did to win the 2015 elections. However, APNU lost the new plot and against all political logic, marginalized their AFC partner and alienated the Indian Guyanese votes they had brought in by shuttering four sugar estates. In the meantime, the PPP had intensified its courtship of “outside” votes and won the 2020 elections with 50.7%. From the word “go”, they showed that they understood the new political logic, and on a “One Guyana” platform, launched a developmental agenda that ostentatiously courted support from the PNC’s traditional African/Mixed constituency. Very high-profile and well-publicized direct injections of funds and projects were initiated.
In the meantime, the PNC/APNU has doubled down on alleged “discrimination” by the PPP government against African/Mixed Guyanese to the extent of them actually creating an “emerging apartheid state”. Now this is clearly over the top but even if it is accepted, by consolidating those segments they will still be unable to obtain a majority to form a government after elections. The APNU/AFC have still not gotten the plot.
The second factor that is playing out is the “non-ethnic” voter “swing voters” who vote on issues and governmental performance. They were always there but have now become significant on account of the new demographics. The PPP’s full-court press to secure crossover and non-traditional votes have rattled the APNU/PNC that have amazingly displayed displeasure that direct appeals are being made to their traditional base.
They need to take cognizance of the new political realities.
