Changes…

…or reversal

Your Eyewitness thinks the just-released Reuters report that ExxonMobil’s negotiating a return to Venezuela should perk up quite a few ears over here – since that could fundamentally change the oil-and-border equation in which we’ve found ourselves since 2016!! That’s when Exxon started bringing up oil from our Stabroek Block – which is about to match Venezuelan production of 1.3M bpd – after it walked away acrimoniously from Chavez-controlled Venezuela in 2007!!!! And joining other American companies to return to its old oil fields – now partly Russian-owned!!
The irony is palpable!! It’s become an article of faith that Venezuela’s territorial claim and Exxon’s presence in the Stabroek Block – where it’s the largest shareholder – are inseparable since Venezuela repeatedly rejected Exxon’s offshore activity connected to Essequibo it claims – and even sent a gunship to threaten their FPSO!! But your Eyewitness has repeatedly warned against being complacent after Mad Maduro was whisked away – and Delcy took over!!
So, what does it mean for us that Exxon could have billions of dollars invested in Guyana – while simultaneously rebuilding billions of dollars of Venezuelan petroleum assets??! Suddenly, Caracas is gonna become not just a belligerent neighbour making us nervous – but a place where Exxon’s got shareholders, employees, equipment, production and money to protect!!
The bottom line is a lesson we can’t ever forget: all companies, oil or otherwise, have a remarkably consistent nationality – profits, baby!! Nobody should imagine Exxon suddenly gonna become our diplomatic uncle, marching into Caracas declaring, “Look boys, leave Essequibo alone!!” But more realistically, a company with major investments on both sides of a geopolitical fault line is gonna have a rather obvious interest in that fault line not becoming an open wound!!
And that’s particularly significant with the ICJ’s upcoming settlement of Venezuela’s Border Controversy, most likely for us!! As such, Exxon’s Venezuelan oil revival should be viewed neither with panic nor with naïveté – just that there’s another variable in the old equation we’re gonna have to deal with – one that makes our hand a tad stronger because of another delicious Guyanese irony in the making!!
We’ve spent years arguing about whether Exxon needs Guyana more than Guyana needs Exxon!! But Venezuela’s revival may eventually produce the reverse question – what happens when Exxon needs both Guyana and Venezuela to keep its South American oil interests profitable? When the ICJ judgement provides the legal clarity we expect, Exxon’s expanding interests on both sides of the border could add another economic incentive for stability!! In the hard-headed world of Big Oil, peace between Georgetown and Caracas can become good business.
So those pushing for us to squeeze out the Yanks in general and Exxon in particular can take a hike!!

…in investment
The recent meeting of the US Ambassador and the principals of the new First Bauxite company that’s now involved in our bauxite production demonstrates an even more significant point – that after just decrying Chinese investment here as part of their strategic world tentacles – the Yanks are putting their money where their mouth is!!
The company’s gonna be calcining our RASC bauxite to produce an extremely hard version that’s used where extreme heat resistance is demanded – such as with rockets re-entering our atmosphere or missiles shrieking through the atmosphere!! This substance, then, is a strategic one that the US military complex wants to have control over – especially when the present largest suppliers are the Chinks!!
The first bauxite initiative therefore delivers a double whammy – consolidating military capabilities while shocking out their rivals!! So, for those trying to identify the beneficial owners of the new investment, they’ve just gotta read between the lines!!
A hint is that, for the first time, the Pentagon is involved in oil negotiations over in Venezuela!!

…housing solutions!!
Your Eyewitness was bemused by the announcement that the Saudis were funding some 3800 houses over in Region Three. He wonders whether this means if they fall behind, they’ll provide some of those desert tents they use??