…south
Your Eyewitness has been following the elections in our southern neighbour – where the son of the jailed ex-President Jair Bolsonaro’s headed for a runoff with President Lula. For Guyana, a Flávio Bolsonaro triumph would bring more than a change of portraits in the presidential palace – it could dramatically rearrange the diplomatic triangle connecting our giant neighbour, our powerful American partner and our increasingly-important Chinese investor!! While there would be opportunities, there would also be challenges with other folks’ quarrels!!
The immediate change would be warmer relations between Brasília and Washington – since Flávio has aggressively cultivated ties with the Trump Administration!! For our already-deepening American partnership, this could make cooperation with both capitals easier – but we gotta be aware that political friendship doesn’t automatically produce compatible trade policies or identical security interests!!
On Essequibo, Bolsonaro should continue Lula’s opposition to Venezuelan military action even more aggressively by reinforcing Brazil’s northern frontier – while seeking closer security coordination with the US!! But while Brazil’s enduring interest is stability along its northern border, ours is protecting our territory and the peaceful resolution of the controversy through the ICJ – even as our interests overlap!!
The larger economic opportunity remains the road south where the Linden–Lethem corridor and Atlantic deep-water harbour can connect northern Brazil with our expanding economy. These projects have commercial logic that should survive either candidate’s victory so Prezzie should be crafting financing proposals, construction schedules and workable customs arrangements for joint projects!! Closer Brazil–US relations could also help us attract American participation in regional infrastructure – where Washington’s involvement already extends beyond oil with their EXIM financing the Wales Gas-to-Energy project and discussing further energy and port financing!
China, however, is where the maths becomes more interesting since a Bolsonaro presidency could bring greater suspicion of Chinese influence – and more pressure to favour American partners in sensitive sectors!! But China’s Brazil’s largest trading partner – and Brazilian exporters can’t deposit anti-communist speeches in the bank!! Trade with China actually grew during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency – so ideological enthusiasm has a way of discovering commercial restraint when the invoices arrive!!
We gotta absorb that lesson – Chinese commerce and investment are substantial here, while American security cooperation and financing carry considerable strategic weight!! Our challenge is to negotiate useful relationships with both while anticipating pressure over particular projects!! We shouldn’t assume an unavoidable, wholesale choice between Washington and Beijing!!
Pressie should, therefore, pursue three concrete objectives with whoever wins – sustained Brazilian support against threats to Guyana’s territory; practical progress on transport and trade; and room to maintain diversified international partnerships!!
We got enough development challenges of our own without becoming the referee in others’ scraps!!
…on CCJ Judges
The CCJ seems to be developing a new jurisprudence – “Judge, and ye will not be judged”!! An attractive doctrine – especially particularly when you occupy the bench and discover that scrutiny has wandered upstairs. Seems one CCJ Judge complained that enquiries into his PRIVATE affairs during an investigation into leaked correspondence have left him feeling harassed and bullied!! Imagine that – a judge demanding that the JUDGES investigating him establish their lawful authority!! Somewhere, an ordinary litigant is whispering, “Welcome, Your Honour.”
We must, of course, hear the other side – the investigating SENIOR Judge has rejected earlier allegations of manipulating panels and influencing judgments – while acknowledging some matters could’ve been handled differently. Fair enough…Judges, too, are entitled to due process – but your Eyewitness hopes they can arrange some without needing several adjournments and a loan!!
We may interpret our constitutions, develop our jurisprudence and complete our emancipation from colonial tutelage by not imposing a dress code!!
Judge, and ye will not be judged!!
…our vegetables
Researchers have found that the nutritional value of fruits and vegetables has fallen by up to 50 per cent since the Sixties because of declining soil quality!! So we now gotta consume twice the amount of vegetables to get the same level of minerals, etc!!
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