Crime: Perception vs Reality

Amid countrywide reports of home invasions and armed robberies, the Guyana Police Force has announced that serious crimes were down by 16 per cent at the end of November 2016 when compared to the same period last year.
In every corner of every region, in booming voices and even in hushed tones, the population is crying out for relief, as the bandits respect no quarter and are spreading unease, much like a contagious disease.
The Police, in the release, stated that there was a ‘break even’ in reports of murder with a ‘clear up’ rate of 64 per cent. In addition, the Police recorded a six per cent decrease in robbery under arms where firearms were used, with a 15 per cent ‘clear up’ rate. Additionally, there was a 17 per cent decrease in armed robberies where other instruments were used by the perpetrators and more so, a 25 per cent decrease was registered with respect to robberies where violence was used.
Despite the consistency with which crime is reported in the media, the statistics point to a vastly different reality. Could it be that the public and the victims are making much ado about nothing? Is the public’s perception of crime so far off from the reality?
Even in the wake of Monday’s heist, where a Corentyne cambio dealer was robbed of millions when more than one dozen gunmen, all armed with AK-47s, invaded his property, the Police stated that the continuous monthly reduction in serious crimes was nothing but a testimony to the excellent collaboration among the many stakeholders and the public at large, coupled with the strategies employed by the Force.
Unfortunately, the Corentyne businessman did not benefit from these strategies, as the Police arrived at the scene more than one and a half hours after the 30-minute ordeal. According to reports, the businessman called repeatedly for help, even after the bandits invaded. A neighbour also attempted unsuccessfully to get the Police on the scene. Fortunately, the victim’s’ life was spared, this time.
It is clear that these were no ordinary bandits, as they were all armed with high-power weapons and were prepared for anything. Yet again, with respect to the seizure of firearms, the Police announced that they were able to clean the streets of 96 unlicensed weapons, including 42 pistols, 28 revolvers, 24 shotguns, and two rifles. Where then did these high-power rifles come from?
Now we need to address the elephant in the room, there has been talk that public perceptions of crime are conditioned, to some extent, by information about its incidence (absolute frequency) rather than by information about its prevalence (relative frequency, ie frequency per head of population) and that the media treatment of crime may unintentionally tend to distort the public impression of crime’s prevalence and seriousness.
Although this was not said publicly, in some quarters there are those who are blaming the media (print, broadcast, social media) and pointing to the increase in reporting of such incidents. After all, this cannot be the reality – the crime situation is not that bad. The statistics prove that. It must, therefore, be the public perception that’s off.
The existing situation is not a deliberate distortion and misrepresentation of the reality, it was not crafted. It is real and being felt by hard-working, law-abiding citizens who are collectively crying out for something to be done. At this point what is needed most is action as we all work together towards building a safer nation.
Even the Honourable Finance Minister Winston Jordan has acknowledged that there is an existing crime situation as “we continue to be bombarded on a near daily basis, about a range of criminal activities, from petty to fatal, that is occurring across our country”. He made reference to this situation during the presentation of the 2017 Budget estimates, where he proudly announced a myriad of new measures which will allow the authorities to both prevent and respond efficiently to crime. Towards this end, he announced that in 2017, the Government will expend .1 billion to restore public confidence in our security sector.
Whatever its root causes, the tendency among Guyanese to be fearful of serious crime should not be lightly dismissed as ‘irrational’.