To the average Guyanese, it would appear we have become Venezuela’s Maduro’s punching bag to relieve him of whatever tensions he may be experiencing. His beleaguered populace became restive because they had to scrounge around in garbage cans for food, in an era when inflation hit 34,509% and a wheelbarrow of Bolivars could not purchase a loaf of bread. He has focused on the Essequibo dispute both to consolidate support internally through a “rally round the flag” effect against an external enemy and to test the geopolitical waters externally, especially vis a vis the US that has targeted his anti-American regime introduced by his mentor Hugo Chavez.
Maduro had his navy seize an Exxon exploration ship in our waters in 2013 and the oil major’s 2015 strike plunged him into an ever spiralling frenzy of provocations. On 7 January 2021, he issued Decree No. 4,415, claiming 200 nautical miles of seabed from the Orinoco Delta for Venezuela, extending into where Exxon had made the oil discoveries. This escalated to sponsoring then conducting a referendum to annex Essequibo on Dec 3 2023. He massed massive troops at our 1899 border after we had the ICJ rule that he cease and desist from his antics and a British Gunboat visited Port Georgetown in solidarity. It cannot be coincidental that Syndicatos from adjoining Bolivar State attacked our soldiers on the Cuyuni River border on Feb 17, the anniversary of the Geneva Agreement signing. Maduro insists it sets the terms of engagement on settling the border controversy yet rejects our referring the controversy to the ICJ based on it.
Two days before his inauguration on Jan 10 – and twelve days before Donald Trump’s Jan 20 in the US – Maduro provocatively declared he would proceed with the election of a “Governor of the Guayana Esequiba” by “the people of Guayana Esequiba”. The return of Donald Trump to the American presidency was another source of tension. Especially since he had reneged on most of the promises he made to conduct free and fair elections in July 2024, in exchange for Trump I sanctions being lifted by Biden. When on Feb 23 Trump reinstated the sanctions by cancelling the license to Chevron – producing 230,000 bpd to keep his economy afloat – Maduro sensed another meltdown in the offing.
He then deliberately bearded Trump and might be interpreting the latter’s fiery meeting with Zelensky as signalling that – with the exception of Israel- the US is unlikely to come to the aid allies especially lower level ones like Guyana. On March 1, a week after Trump’s cancellation of the Chevron license, he sent an armed Venezuelan Navy ship into the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Guyana to threaten an Exxon FPSO that has been operating there for years, insisting it was operating in Venezuela’s EEZ. The US Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs issued this statement: “Venezuelan naval vessels threatening ExxonMobil’s floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit is unacceptable and a clear violation of Guyana’s internationally recognized maritime territory. Further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime.”
On Maduro’s announcement that elections for a Governor of a Guyana state will be held on May 25 – a day before Guyana’s Independence Day – Guyana has petitioned the ICJ and reminded them of their December 1, 2023, order, which “directed that Venezuela shall refrain from any actions that would modify the situation prevailing in the disputed territory, which is currently administered by Guyana.” The Order also emphasized that both States must avoid actions that might aggravate or extend the dispute or make it more difficult to resolve, which holding an election in Essequibo would certainly do.
Ultimately, even if the ICJ were to rule in our favour on the 1899 boundary, since Maduro has rejected that Court’s jurisdiction, we must prepare for the possibility that Venezuela’s hybrid warfare in the gray zone could escalate into a kinetic war. We must intensify our efforts to modernize our military capabilities to assure Venezuela of our deterrence capabilities. Some have also recommended a military base in Essequibo to which our allies, including the US and Brazil have access.
