Does a substantial turnout at PPPC political rallies directly correlate with a significant increase in votes for the party?

Dear Editor,
Speculation surrounds the probable outcomes of Guyana’s 2025 elections as the two major political parties, PPPC and APNU, campaign across the country for voters’ support, while smaller groups like AFC and WIN, aim to become “king makers” if no party secures a Parliamentary majority.
Each party’s campaign has distinct themes: APNU targets issues like racism, discrimination, past extra-judicial killings, and corruption allegations against PPPC. The PPPC denies these claims and asserts that there is no empirical evidence to support the allegations. They counter that APNU lacks an economic development plan, and criticize their (APNU+AFC) 2015–2020 governance that was devoid of any transformational project and which was marred by heavy taxation. Smaller parties, though critical of the PPPC, primarily focus on winning parliamentary seats.
WIN, supported by one of Guyana’s wealthiest families, is viewed as the most energetic of the smaller parties, with allegations from APNU that WIN is using financial incentives to sway voters. A video shows money being handed out. A skirmish occurred on July 15, 2025 over payment for participation in the WIN’s Nomination Day Parade at when one person demanded full payment of $50,000. As elections approach, political attacks will intensify, with WIN now being subtly targeted by APNU for encroaching on its support base through monetary inducements. APNU is already weakened by leadership losses to PPPC and AFC, and views WIN as increasing its difficulties.
The PPPC has repeatedly stated in their campaign rallies and public meetings that they expect the other parties to accuse them of racism, discrimination, extra judicial killings, and corruption. “This is all they have; negatives.” The PPPC points out that no opposition party would be able to attack them on their massive accomplishments in physical and social infrastructure projects. Neither could they critique the PPPC’s formidable developments in other sectors.
The PPPC says proudly that the people trust them because of their experience, accomplishments, and the fulfillment of all their 2020 campaign promises. Moreover, the PPPC has a charismatic leader who is also young, energetic, hard working, and who readily connects with his audience.

Many people assume that the large crowds at PPPC’s rallies indicate a win at the 2025 elections, while others note that crowd size does not necessarily guarantee votes, despite PPPC’s advantages. The 2025 elections are viewed as Guyana’s most consequential since 1992, due in large part to the country’s oil wealth. Irrespective of how people feel, the PPPC is not taking anything for granted. Their campaign’s momentum expands daily. Never before has a PPPC campaign been so energetic and vast.
The results of elections 2025 will reveal: (1) whether large crowds at a particular political party lead to high voter turnout for that party; (2) if issues are gradually overtaking race as the main driver of political preference; (3) if there is still hope for the viability of a third force; (4) if monetary incentives could upset traditional patterns of campaign mobilization; (5) if the PPPC would be able to improve its geographic (regional) representation in Parliament; (6) if the AFC can remain a viable party; (7) if the combined opposition can make the PPPC a minority government; and (8) if smaller parties can secure any seat in Parliament.

Sincerely,
Dr Tara Singh