Finance Minister warns against economic complacency

…as US Ambassador stresses danger of becoming “pariah state”

Stark warnings against economic complacency and the risk of becoming an internationally isolated “pariah state” were delivered Wednesday, as Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh and US Ambassador Nicole Theriot delivered high-level appeals for national vigilance.

Addressing manufacturers at the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association (GMSA) 30th Anniversary Dinner at the Georgetown Marriott, Singh praised the association’s role in powering the non-oil economy but cautioned that Guyana must aggressively safeguard democratic integrity and global financial credibility or face erosion of investor confidence and diplomatic relevance in an era of intensifying global disruption.
Focusing on governance, geopolitics, and financial credibility, the Finance Minister noted that these issues must never be underestimated in responsible policy-making. “We must never underestimate the importance of preserving the democratic credentials of our country and preserving our standing in the international community, including the integrity of our financial system as part of an integrated, unavoidable, global financial and economic system,” he cautioned, stressing that national progress can quickly regress if democratic or financial integrity is weakened.
Singh also reinforced that macroeconomic stability must be defended and institutionalised. “We must also never take for granted the importance of macroeconomic stability and macroeconomic resilience,” he further posited, explaining that a resilient economy includes strong institutional structures, an oil and gas-backed natural resource fund, and a sovereign wealth fund governed transparently and strategically.
At this point, he reminded the audience that Guyana stands today as one of the very few countries in the world to have accumulated enough resources in its sovereign wealth fund to pay off the entire external debt while still having cash remaining – a milestone underscoring enormous fiscal potential.
“But also, when we speak of resilience, we are speaking also of an economy that is more diversified and needs to be more diversified,” Singh stressed. “Resilience can only be achieved if we diversify the sources of growth and the sources of macroeconomic and fiscal space… You will hear us speaking incessantly about the importance of the non-oil economy and, importantly, the importance of a globally competitive non-oil economy.”

“Pariah state”
In her address to the gathering, United States Ambassador to Guyana Nicole Theriot issued one of the evening’s strongest warnings: “Should Guyana take its current position for granted, it can run the risk of becoming a pariah state, or a state isolated by those who traditionally have been its friends, such as the USA.”
Theriot emphasised that global confidence in Guyana’s financial and democratic posture is central to its continued economic rise.
“Guyana is at an economic inflection point – a moment countries wait decades for,” Ambassador Theriot stated. “But the fastest way to lose the world’s trust is to behave like you no longer need it. A resilient economy must also be a trusted one. The United States wants Guyana to succeed, but success requires discipline, democratic strength, and global responsibility, not complacency.”

Global unpredictability
The Finance Minister began his address by congratulating businesses for their sustained contributions to Guyana’s growing non-oil economy, assuring them that the Government of Guyana, under the leadership of President Irfaan Ali, remains committed to responsible governance, investor support, and long-term national stability amid an unpredictable global commodities market.
“Everybody has been alive long enough to remember an era when oil was US$138 a barrel, and we should remember not only the era of oil being US$138 per barrel, but we’ve also in recent memory lived through a period more recently when oil was as low as US$13 per barrel, and the reality is that oil did not stay at US$138 per barrel for very long,” Minister Singh explained. He further underscored that, only two and a half years ago, oil commanded US$98 per barrel, starkly contrasting with current pricing realities. “It’s not US$98 a barrel today; it’s closer to maybe sixty-something dollars – a third less than it was two and a half years ago. That’s the reality of the world in which we live.”
Drawing an economic parallel with gold, Singh reminded stakeholders of the volatility inherent in Guyana’s commodity-dependent economy. “Gold is, of course, an important contributor to our economy, and all of us in this room, we celebrate the fact that gold today is US$4000 an ounce, but we can all in this room remember a period when we were excited about gold even crossing the US$400 threshold, and we can all remember a time when gold was just US$450 an ounce. Today it is US$4000 an ounce. I don’t know who will wager whether it will remain at US$4000 an ounce,” he expressed.

He also made pointed reference to freight pricing, noting that global freight prices have skyrocketed over the last five years, another reminder of external forces shaping the business environment.
“And so we must never forget that we live in a very uncertain and unpredictable period, and we know this as a Government, and as a responsible Government that recognises the reality that we are living in an unpredictable world, and as a Government that takes its responsibility seriously, and not only its responsibilities today and tomorrow, but its responsibilities next year and the year after that, and not only its responsibilities in this term of office but in the next term and the term after, and not only for this generation but the generation after, we as a responsible Government have to be mindful of these global realities,” Dr Singh emphasised, asserting that resilience requires not only navigating the current economy, but safeguarding Guyana’s prosperity long into the future.

GMSA
Meanwhile, GMSA President Rafeek Khan reinforced the broader message of long-term readiness. Khan noted that the GMSA is entering the fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0), driven by data, automation and genetic engineering, where the service sector will continue bridging operational gaps for manufacturing via transportation, finance, warehousing, telecommunications and professional services.
Khan urged institutional preparedness and unveiled a future campus that he said will bring expanded value to stakeholders.
He recalled an earlier PPP/C economic call to action, stating, “About five years ago I stood on this platform serving then as President of GMSA, and I echoed a voice from our President, Dr Mohammed Irfaan Ali – to build consortiums.” He added, “Today I am pleased to say that we have witnessed successful consortiums formed with international companies within various sectors of the economy.”