Govt support critical against climate change impacts on agriculture – World Bank economist

…as report notes sugar in greatest danger

As the world grapples with finding solutions to the climate crisis, the World Bank in its latest report shed some light on the danger of climate change to the agricultural and the fisheries sectors, and recommendations have come Guyana’s way to mitigate against it.

The report in question is the World Bank’s 360-degree resilience report, which deals with the shocks coming the Caribbean’s way from climate change. The report covered 17 countries in the Region and urged a comprehensive approach to tackle the shocks from climate change, pandemics and shifting socio-economic factors.
During a virtual press conference to discuss the report, Senior Economist at the World Bank, Julie Rozenburg was asked by Guyana Times how the effects of climate change on agriculture and the fisheries sector might be mitigated.
Several things are clear. According to Rozenburg, Government support will be crucial to keep the sectors viable for farmers and fisherfolk. Another important aspect of mitigating the effects of climate change on agriculture is investing in new technologies.
“Fisheries is also a sector that will be impacted. Again, with a lot of uncertainty about what the possible impact could be. In general, the usual recommendations for having more sustainable resources (include) preventing overfishing, helping farmers and fisherfolk with their capital investments. All of this is even more important with the uncertainty brought by climate impacts.

“So, in general, helping farmers and fishermen access credit, investing in new technologies, learn new techniques. Because there are options to adapt. It’s just not always available. The information’s not available. And then making sure there is no overfishing that could lead some fish populations to collapse would be the priority. The enforcement of quotas is also required,” Rozenburg explained.
According to the report, climate change will severely impact the Caribbean’s agricultural sector, which already suffers from hurricane seasons, as well as droughts. According to the report, the Caribbean as a whole will need to adapt to the changes, which could include crops experiencing heat stress and failing under the rising temperatures. Worryingly, the report notes, that based on modelling, the greatest impact will be on sugar production – a critical industry in Guyana.
“Recent modelling results show that the largest negative impact of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean will be on sugar cane, followed by maize and cotton (Piñeiro et al 2020),” the report disclosed.
“The study finds that, compared to a scenario without climate change, maize yield losses due to climate change through 2030 in the Caribbean will be roughly 16.5 per cent… Except for one model projection for the Dominican Republic, all countries and subregions experience a yield loss due to climate change,” the report said.

The report also zeroed in on the fisheries industry, noting that the sector could provide both growth and food security in the Region, but was also in danger owing to climate change. It was pointed out that within the Caribbean Community (Caricom), fishing employs 200,000 people. A further 100,000 people are indirectly employed in fish processing, marketing, and other supporting roles.
“Fish supplies seven per cent of protein intake in the Caribbean, and the sector supplies one per cent of all Latin American fish production and about 0.2 per cent of total world fishery production. The aquaculture sector is a promising source of growth and jobs, but its development in the Caribbean has been slower than the global average.
“As of 2014, the Caribbean only constituted about 0.05 per cent of world total aquaculture production (Makara 2021). The fisheries sector is already affected by overfishing, habitat alteration, poor management, and other challenges, which are only compounded by the effects of climate change.”
According to the report, sea level rise, rising sea surface temperatures, acidification and increased storms have the greatest impact on fisheries in the Caribbean. Besides destroying the physical habitat of the fish, it can also affect their behaviour, growth, distribution and even ability to reproduce. This will be particularly felt by Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and developing countries.
Between May and June this year, heavy rains in Guyana resulted in widespread flooding across the country, affecting thousands of households. The devastation included submerged buildings and vehicles with adverse effects on crops, livestock, and health. It also resulted in the Government shelling out billions of dollars in financial assistance.
The sugar industry and the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) were also significantly affected with estimated losses in the fields of more than $1.5 billion. Albion, which is GuySuCo’s largest estate, was the worst hit by the floods. (G3)