Granger responsible for APNU/AFC’s loss – party’s pollster

With the end of the recount of ballots and the certification of the results for Region Four (Demerara-Mahaica), the Statements of Recount (SoRs) from the entire exercise show that A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change (APNU/AFC) lost the 2020 General Election by 15,416 votes.

According to Peter Wickham, a noted regional pollster and head of the Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), caretaker President David Granger has to take responsibility for his party’s loss at the March 2 General and Regional Elections.
He made these comments during an interview on News Talk radio Guyana. Wickham pointed out that by delaying and dragging his feet to call elections throughout 2019, following the passage of the No-Confidence Motion in 2018, Granger missed a crucial opportunity to press his advantage against the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), which has now emerged victorious.

“You had the necessary capacity on the ground, to call the elections. But what do you have? You had a year of dithering, where you are arguing over your right to do House-to-House Registration. You have a right to this; you have a right to that,” he said.
“You challenge the outcome of the No-Confidence Motion. The vote of no confidence was clearly valid. The framers of the Constitution knew what they were doing.”
Wickham had previously produced a poll for APNU/AFC early last year, which had been favourable to Granger. He has also been on record urging the caretaker President to call elections since 2019.
One such occasion was a panel discussion in July 2019, where he had argued that the coalition Government would have contested the 2011 and 2015 polls with the list that expired on April 30, 2019, and won same.
Naturally, caretaker President Granger did not call elections but instead, waited on GECOM. In addition, the Government-nominated Commissioners on GECOM did little to speed up the process. Granger eventually declared March 2, 2020, as Election Day – over a year and three months after losing a No-Confidence Motion.
“And I have said, I feel one of the challenges Guyanese have with this current President, is the fact he does not seem to make decisions quickly and effectively. That’s why the advantage they had, disappeared. I honestly believe, based on my poll data, that the outcome being projected based on the results, is consistent with what would have happened in the space of time of the year,” Wickham said.
“…Guyanese essentially saw things in President Granger that they were uncomfortable with and they felt the economy needed to move. So, I don’t buy this argument of stealing an election. I believe it’s a case where you missed an opportunity to call the election at a time when you had the advantage,” he also said.

Recount
The curtains on the National Recount of ballots came down on Monday, with the results for the final district to be counted, District Four, certified on Tuesday. The data generated from the 2339 Statements of Recount (SoRs) shows that the PPP/C, whose Presidential Candidate is former Housing Minister Dr Irfaan Ali, received a total of 233,336 votes.
This is 15,416 more votes than their nearest rivals, the APNU/AFC, which received 217,920 total votes. When one calculates using the Hare formula, it means that PPP/C would have secured 33 out of 65 seats in the National Assembly and APNU/AFC would have secured 31.
The road to General and Regional Elections was a bumpy one, starting with the successful passage of a No-Confidence Motion in the National Assembly against the Government in December 2018 and culminating in Granger announcing the March 2, 2020 date for elections.
The APNU/AFC Government argued unsuccessfully, first at the National Assembly and then at the High Court, that the motion was not validly passed. Among their arguments was that 33 was not the majority of 65 and that Charrandas Persaud, the Alliance For Change (AFC) parliamentarian who voted against them, was not qualified to be in Parliament.
They found success at the Appeals Court, which overturned the no-confidence vote. All the while, the constitutional deadline of March 2019, by which time Granger should have called elections, expired. But the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) upheld the passage of the No-Confidence Motion, vindicated Persaud and left the Government with little choice than to focus on elections.
While the case was being heard in the Judiciary, however, GECOM embarked on House-to-House Registration based on an order signed by the GECOM Chairman Granger illegally appointed, Retired Justice James Patterson.
After staunch resistance by the PPP, the exercise was halted prematurely by Patterson’s successor, Retired Justice Claudette Singh. The caretaker President subsequently announced the date for elections and the rest, including the fraudulently inflated figures Region Four Returning Officer Clairmont Mingo declared, is history.