When you come from a small country like Guyana, you should always be outward looking. You have to! This was the modality adopted by great successes like Singapore and Ireland. Right here in the Caribbean – Jamaica is doing fantastic on the export of foods. When you are a small country and you are always aware of the world around you and you must know that you have to be better than the rest of the world at a specific niche to get ahead or you shall be left behind.
So for a small country like Guyana, exports must become second nature. According to the Bureau of Statistics, in 2017 Guyana exported US$1.438 billion. In 2016 Guyana exported US$1.441 billion. In reality, that means a reduction in exports by US$3 million or G$615 million.
How did the Guyanese economy get trapped in this vicious cycle after a sustained period of growth in exports from 1991 to 2012? We must not forget that in 1991 after the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) under Hoyte was implemented, Guyana was able to see its first growth in exports since 1980, stemming a decade of export declines under the then PNC Government. In 1991, the export value was US$0.356 billion. By 2012, Guyana exports had peaked at US$1.666 billion, computing as an export growth of 368 per cent under a People’s Progressive Party (PPP) Government. Since then exports have been all over the place like a cork in the sea.
First and foremost, Guyana thinks it is a Caribbean country and I think this is where the geo-economic problem really lies. If one is to observe our export profile, our top three export destinations are Canada, the United States, and the UK, which take off some 56 per cent of our exports. Significant potential markets that surround us (Brazil, Suriname or Venezuela) are not even in our top 10 destinations. This is a fundamental problem that has to be fixed.
The second fundamental trade problem Guyana faces is 85 per cent of our exports in 2017 are raw products? Total insanity. Three years after President Granger stood on the Berbice River and commented on all the raw bauxite and raw lumber floating down the river and his commitment to changing that reality within 100 days, he has done absolutely nothing to deliver on his promise to the people on the trade front. The table below as published by the Bureau of Statistics is telling. But what was even more glaring was sugar exports dropped to US$48.5 million, compared to an average of around US$120 million during the period 1993 to 2014 under the PPP. Was this adventure led by Clive Thomas/Errol Hanoman/Noel Holder on a “highway to do where” worth it? These three men collectively led to the destruction of some US$70 million in annual value for a nation with no replacement and that is nothing short of criminal. They should all be banished to Timbuktu for such anti-national and anti-patriotic actions. But yet they continue to hold senior roles in the Granger Government save and except for Hanoman who cut and run right back to his handlers when he was properly exposed. Clearly, Thomas and Holder have no professional integrity since the best option for them is to at least bag their faces and run for the hills after harming the nation this much.
The third fundamental problem on the trade front is that we must fix the mismatch in our trade balance (exports vs imports). When the Granger Government slaughtered any chance of the Amaila Falls Hydro Project being built, I became convinced that Guyana was going to retrogress economically until it changes course. That single act has condemned the nation to economic backwardness with no second chance.
As a country, our principle aim should have been to become a beacon of private enterprise and innovation with a clear focus on South America. We must increase our exports to Brazil, Suriname and Venezuela and such a strategy must become a priority because Caricom has very little to offer Guyana. That means we must find out what these South American countries want, find our niche and produce it at the right quality in the right amounts for them at the right time. But if we do not have adequate low cost and reliable electricity, the process is like pushing a rock up a hill but it is not a lost cause. We still have the six sisters (gold, bauxite, sugar, rice, seafoods, and forestry) and we should seriously consider a jewellery manufacturing industry as the first jump into South America.
The time is now to seize the opportunities. Not next year but now!
