Guyana could experience above-normal rainfall between December and February — HydroMet warns

Guyana could experience above-normal rainfall between December 2025 and February 2026, with more frequent wet days and intense downpours over much of the country, the Hydrometeorological Service has warned key agencies and sectors.
The outlook was presented on Monday during the 19th annual National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOP), hosted by the Agriculture Ministry’s Hydrometeorological Service, where officials urged stakeholders to use the forecast to guide planning, preparedness and risk reduction over the coming months.
Delivering welcoming remarks, Deputy Chief Hydrometeorological Officer Haymattie Danny reminded participants that climate services touch “nearly every aspect of our lives”, and stressed that Guyana remains highly vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather linked to climate change.
She noted that since NCOP was introduced locally in 2016, it has evolved into a biannual platform that brings together public and private sector stakeholders to examine seasonal forecasts and their likely impacts.
“Stakeholder engagement from both the public and private sector is critical… It is prudent that stakeholders understand and become climate literate,” Danny said, adding that the forum helps bridge the gap between climate science and real-world application so that sectors can make better-informed decisions.
Above-normal rainfall risk
Presenting the seasonal outlook, climatologist Komal Chandila explained that model guidance from global and regional centres is pointing to near- to above-normal rainfall across most regions for the December–February period, with a higher chance of wetter-than-usual conditions along the coast and near-inland areas.
He said the forecast is influenced by sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic, the behaviour of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and other large-scale climate drivers. While there is no strong El Niño or La Niña signal at present, ocean conditions and atmospheric patterns are supportive of enhanced rainfall for Guyana’s secondary rainy season.
The outlook suggests more wet days than usual in several regions and an increased chance of heavy rainfall events, especially days with more than 25 millimetres of rain;
It also makes mention of rising levels in conservancies and reservoirs across much of the country; and continued below-normal rainfall and drier-than-usual conditions in the far south of Region Six and parts of Region Nine, where a drought watch remains in effect.
Chandila cautioned that, although the overall season is likely to be wetter than normal for many areas, there will still be periods of little or no rain because of drivers that suppress rainfall, such as Saharan dust outbreaks.
Intense thundershowers, lightning and flash flooding
Meanwhile, Meteorologist Satish Nandana, of the National Weather Watch Centre, said the ITCZ remains the main rainfall driver at this time of year, supported by warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, moisture transport from the Atlantic, low-level troughs and local effects such as sea breezes and Guyana’s varied topography.
Nandana warned that when these drivers combine, they can generate intense thundershowers, lightning and flash flooding, especially in low-lying coastal and riverain communities. At the same time, he pointed out that Saharan dust plumes can temporarily shut down rainfall and create hot, hazy conditions with health implications for people with respiratory illnesses.
He encouraged stakeholders and the wider public to make greater use of Hydromet’s daily forecasts, radar imagery and satellite products, which are now available on the Service’s website and social media platforms, and updated every 10–20 minutes.
“Once you see those deep reds and greens on the satellite image, that’s where the heaviest rainfall and thunderstorms are. That’s not where you want to be,” he advised, urging people to monitor official updates, rather than relying only on third-party apps.
However, Advisor in the Agriculture Ministry, Dr Richard Blair underlined the close linkage between climate and food security, noting that droughts, floods and extreme rainfall can all drive food shortages and price spikes.
He recalled the damaging impacts of recent regional systems such as Hurricanes Melissa and Beryl, and pointed out that even though Guyana lies outside the main hurricane belt, it continues to feel the effects of climate extremes, including major floods and extended dry spells.
Blair said Government has been investing heavily in the Hydrometeorological Service to improve forecasting, monitoring and climate services, including:
The installation of advanced weather stations at hinterland aerodromes such as Bartica and Mabaruma.
The development of a Maproom portal, an online platform that offers interactive climate data on rainfall, temperature, wet/dry spells and extremes; and the implementation of a high-resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF) system for short-range forecasting up to 72 hours.
He also highlighted the recent launch of an agricultural insurance product aimed at helping farmers manage climate risk, saying Hydromet’s data and projections are critical to making such a product viable.
“In order to drive a product like that, you need information,” Blair said, adding that investments in Hydromet are central to the Government’s push to build a modern, resilient agriculture sector that safeguards livelihoods for generations to come.
Meanwhile, Chandila also touched on temperature and heat stress, noting that while daytime temperatures are expected to remain relatively high, nights are forecast to be cooler over the coming months, a shift that could have mixed implications for agriculture and health.
He warned that wetter conditions, combined with warmer temperatures, can increase mosquito breeding and the risk of vector-borne diseases in coastal and hinterland areas with a heighten the risk of waterborne diseases where drainage and sanitation are poor.
The NCOP, he said, directly supports several national policy frameworks, including the Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, the National Adaptation Plan, the National Health Plan, the National Drainage and Irrigation Strategy and the Agriculture Development Strategy 2021–2025.