Guyana in the new world order

If there were any doubt we have entered a new world order, Canadian PM Mark Carney›s presentation at the World Economic Forum at Davos should have cleared that up.
The neoliberal leader amazingly declared to the super-elite world leaders in politics, business and NGOs a worldview that has been the standard anti-imperial critique for decades. And received a standing ovation. Preceding US President Trump, who had threatened Europe with force over expropriating Greenland, he candidly stated there was a “rupture” and not a transition in the world order. Quoting the Athenian Thucydides, he said we are now living in a reality where “the strong do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must.”
“For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We joined its institutions, we praised its principles, and we benefited from its predictability.
“We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false. That the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient. That trade rules were enforced asymmetrically. And we knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.”
Outlining a strategy for Canada, he warned, “Stop invoking ‘rules-based international order’ as though it still functions as advertised. Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: compete with each other for favour or combine to create a third path with impact.”
He advised, “Building a strong domestic economy should always be every Government’s immediate priority. And diversification internationally is not just economic prudence – it is the material foundation for honest foreign policy. Because countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.”
The question for us is what path Guyana should pursue as a small nation in this new world, albeit strategically positioned with huge reserves of low-cost light oil being developed by a consortium led by ExxonMobil. Scaled for size and circumstances, Carney’s Damascene conversion has lessons for Guyana.
Rather than joining any “third path”, Guyana should strengthen its alliance with the US, which has intervened against Venezuela, its most potent foreign threat, declaring it will “run” the country. A military base should be created in Essequibo, to which the US should have access. We have always taken for granted Carney’s epiphany about the US acting in its own self-interest. Guyana must pragmatically accept that while the destruction of Venezuelan narco-traffickers was the US stated goal, control of the gargantuan Venezuelan oil reserves was also a strategic factor, especially vis-à-vis its rival China. In the short and medium term, US interventions in the Venezuelan oil sector will do more to stabilise the economy and social conditions to deflect criticisms of any “puppet” regime than lower oil prices through significantly increased oil production.
Crucially, the US has declared it supports the ICJ judicial path towards settling Venezuela’s border controversy over Guyana’s Essequibo. The Government can leverage the political capital earned by supporting the US’s regionally criticised move against Maduro and the economic one by not demanding a renegotiation on the ExxonMobil contract to convince the US to have the new regime under Delcy Rodriguez accept the ICJ’s decision. This does not mean that Guyana should not also consolidate the support it has received on the issue from other nations since the legitimacy of the ICJ’s decision is strengthened by a wider global consensus.
Diplomatically, while the US has given short shrift to the UN and other multilateral institutions of the old “rules-based” international order, it recognises it will need to work with other countries, as shown by its proposed Board of Peace that “seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.” As the fastest-growing economy in the world, Guyana would raise its global profile if it became a member, as it was on the UNSC. Guyana should also leverage its economic clout within Caricom to have the grouping align its stance closer to the US, which has robustly revived the Monroe Doctrine.
At the same time, just as Carney had proposed for Canada, Guyana should continue to develop greater self-reliance domestically, taking advantage of its status as the only country that can feed itself. It has already positioned itself as a world leader in low-carbon development, carbon sequestration and a regional AI data centre leader.