Guyana needs a focused Govt to deal with COVID-19, economic crisis – economist

– says political impasse must end now for the sake of Guyana

By Jarryl Bryan

As Guyana’s political impasse drags on almost five months after elections were held, the country has seen over 380 COVID-19 cases, the slowdown of the economy and no plan for an economic stimulus or even a sitting Parliament to approve monies for a plan.

Dr Justin Ram described the situation in Guyana as an unfortunate one, while appearing on a virtual panel discussion on Sunday with President of the Georgetown Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI) Nicholas Boyer, GCCI Executive Richard Rambarran and financial analyst Dhanraj Singh.
Ram, a graduate from the London School of Economics and Political Science, noted that the COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented crisis, making it difficult for countries to address it even in the best of times. He juxtaposed this with Guyana, which is without a proper functioning Government.
“I think what is happening here is a very unfortunate situation where Guyana has found itself, where you are trying to deal with a crisis and you are unable to react to it the way that it should,” Ram said.
“From a health perspective, there needs to be a better response,” Ram said, highlighting the need for Guyana to do more testing. “On top of that, trying to react to this economically requires a Government that is focused, that is not distracted in any way.”

Stimulus
According to Ram, Guyana should have been in an ideal position to address COVID-19 as one of the few countries in the hemisphere that was projected to see significant economic growth this year due to its burgeoning oil sector.
Ram noted that ideally, the Government should have been able to access that oil money in order to stimulate the economy and protect its citizens from the effects of COVID-19. He recalled that there are even global conversations about what form the economic stimulus should take.
One suggestion is that stimulus packages should be aimed at subsidising industries that were most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another suggestion is that industries which were the most resilient should be subsidised. There is also the suggestion that subsidies should be focused on sectors which would bring the most long-term benefit.
“Guyanese need to come together and say look, what it is we need to do in order to stimulate our economy in a way that will benefit everyone… COVID-19, as terrible as this is, gives an opportunity to build for the long term. After Caribbean countries are hit by hurricanes, they say build back better.”

“Well I think now is the time to consider how we build for the long term. That means we have to put on a completely different lens. That type of dialogue needs to happen in Guyana. And what’s really unfortunate is that that isn’t happening now because of the political stalemate. For the sake of the country, the sake of Guyana, it is time for this political stalemate to come to an end,” he stressed.
According to the economist, the people of Guyana will only continue to suffer if the stalemate continues. Ram stressed that the politicians must become statesmen and women and say enough is enough.
“People will only continue to suffer until that impasse comes to a resolution. I think that now is the time for our politicians to become statespeople and say enough is enough. Let us do what is right for the country. Because right now Guyana needs strong leadership and dialogue to deal with the crisis with which we are faced.”

Growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously projected that Guyana would see an 85.6 per cent growth rate for 2020. But that was before the coronavirus pandemic and the economic impacts it had, including the global drop in oil prices and demand for oil.
The IMF subsequently revised these growth figures to 52.8 per cent. But even this has been described as overly ambitious, considering the breakdown in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, experts have repeatedly pointed out that the oil sector is not job retentive and that sectors which employ the majority of Guyanese must remain a priority.
Ram also cited the Paris Agreement that was signed in 2016 by 175 countries including Guyana and the fact that the world is moving away from oil and the carbon emissions they produce, towards renewable energy.
The economist recommended that Guyana use some of its oil revenue to ensure it is not left behind by the world. In addition, he urged that some of the money be used for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which include eradicating poverty and inequalities.
“Although Guyana is now on the brink of great windfalls from the oil and gas industry, no oil and gas economy should be sitting on its laurels. Why I say that the imminent threat of climate change means the world is moving rapidly in a whole different direction,” Ram said.
“We are likely to see in many developed countries, their stimulus packages focus on stimulus that is Paris Agreement aligned. And I think it is time for Guyana to pay attention to that. Although we want to benefit from the oil and gas windfalls, we have to ensure those revenues are spent in a way that is Paris Agreement and SDG aligned,” he added.
The IMF’s projections also preceded the political impasse Guyana is currently in. Elections were held since March 2, 2020, but a winner is yet to be declared. A National Recount has shown that the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) won the elections by 15,416 votes, but the incumbent A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change (APNU/AFC) has refused to concede.
In all of this, the international community, including the United States (US), United Kingdom, Canada, the European Union and the Organisation of American States (OAS), has stressed that the recount results must be used.
The US has already imposed visa restrictions on persons in Guyana who it said were “undermining democracy.” Hanging heavy in the air is the potential for an escalation of sanctions if the political stalemate is not resolved with the democratic will of the people triumphant.