Guyana’s economy projected to grow by 34.3% this year

Bolstered by an expected ramping up of oil production offshore and persistent growth in key non-oil sectors, Guyana’s economy is slated to continue its growing trend for yet another consecutive year, with projections putting Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at a 34.3 per cent growth in 2024. This was revealed by Senior Minister with Responsibility for Finance, Dr Ashni Singh, during his presentation of the whopping $1.146 trillion 2024 Budget in the National Assembly on Monday.
The People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) Government’s fiscal plan – its fifth since taking office in August 2020 – is themed: “Staying the Course; Building Prosperity for All”.
Initial projections had pegged the country’s real GDP to grow by 25.1 per cent in 2023, with non-oil GDP expanding by 7.9 per cent.
However, Dr Singh has reported to the nation that Guyana’s real GDP has surpassed expectations and expanded by 33 per cent overall last year, with a “stronger-than-expected” growth of 11.7 per cent in non-oil real GDP.
“The expansion of the overall real economy in 2023 can be largely attributed to continued growth in oil and gas activity, with the notable achievement of first oil at the new floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, Prosperity, in November. Additionally, while growth in the non-oil economy was mainly driven by expansions in the construction and services sectors, notable increases were also observed in all subsectors within agriculture, forestry, and fishing and manufacturing, as well as in the other mining and quarrying subsector,” the Finance Minister explained.
This, he noted, is evidence of Government’s policies focusing on supporting growth in the traditional pillars of the economy while managing the oil and gas sector effectively. Consequently, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector expanded by seven per cent in 2023. He attributed this performance to increases across all subsectors, namely: other crops, rice growing, livestock, fishing, sugar growing, and forestry – all despite the impact of El Niño on the production of a number of crops.
In the sugar sector, a 28 per cent growth was recorded last year. This was as a result of the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) having produced 60,204 tonnes in 2023, compared with 47,049 tonnes in 2022. Similarly, the rice industry saw an expansion of seven per cent, with Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) reporting a total production of 653,706 tonnes for 2023, above the 610,595 tonnes produced in the previous year.
The performance in these two industries pushed the overall growth in the manufacturing sector to 25 per cent in 2023. This expansion was also driven by other manufacturing activities, mainly the manufacturing of fabricated metal products and non-metallic products.
Additionally, the mining and quarrying sector grew by 42.6 per cent in 2023, due mainly to the burgeoning oil and gas industry.
Last year, the oil and gas sector expanded by 45.9 per cent, with production of 142.9 million barrels of oil compared with 101.4 million in 2022. This includes production of crude oil at a rate of approximately 142,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the Liza Destiny FPSO, while the Liza Unity FPSO produced at a rate of 235,000 bpd.
In contrast, however, the gold mining industry contracted by 11.2 per cent in 2023, on account of lower output from the small and medium scale producers. Total gold declarations fell to 432,113 ounces last year.
Similarly, the bauxite mining industry also declined by 20.4 per cent last year, due to reduced output from both producing operators. Bauxite production is estimated to have fallen to 525,000 tonnes last year.
The other mining subsector – sand, stone, diamonds, and manganese – showed a more positive performance, with a 22.7 per growth in 2023. Expectedly, stone and sand extraction increased by 98 and 21 per cent respectively, with demand from construction activity in the public and private sectors continuing to grow.
Predictably as well is the 26.8 per cent growth in the construction sector last year, building on the 26.3 per cent growth in 2022. While in the service sector, a 10.3 per cent expansion was recorded across all of the service industries.

Projections: consecutive growth
The Finance Minister has said that, heading into the new fiscal year, “The Guyanese economy is set to expand at an even faster pace in 2024, with real GDP growth projected at 34.3 per cent. Once realised, this will represent the fifth consecutive year in which the Guyanese economy will be growing at more than 20 per cent, and will result in Guyana growing at an annual average of 38.8 per cent over that five-year period.”

According to Dr Singh, the projected expansion this year is primarily attributed to the further increases in oil production, as the Prosperity FPSO – the third vessel in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana – ramps up its operations.
Key to note, however, is the continued growth of the non-oil economy, which is projected at 11.9 per cent this year, and represents four years of consecutive growth at an average rate of 9.9 per cent annually since its 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020.
This year, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is projected to grow by 10.4 per cent, supported by increased production across all subsectors. Meanwhile, sugar will continue to accelerate its recovery, with strong growth of 66.1 per cent in 2024 being aided by GuySuCo’s continued focus on mechanisation and conversion efforts, as well as promoting value-added production. Supported by a $6 billion budget allocation, the sector is expected to produce 100,000 metric tonnes of sugar in 2024.
Similarly, the rice industry is expected to grow by 6.2 per cent this year, with production increasing to 710,000 metric tonnes. The $1.3 billion allocated is anticipated to drive an expansion in acreage cultivated, the deployment of new and more productive varieties, and improve research and development.
An 11.6 per cent growth is projected this year in the other crops subsector, largely reflecting considerable progress in corn and soya production as Guyana works to achieve self-sufficiency in 2025.
Increases are also expected in the cultivation of coconuts, root crops and spices as Government continues to put systems in place to achieve food security locally and regionally.
The livestock and fishing subsectors are expected to expand by 6.6 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
The forestry sector is also projected to record growth of 3.9 per cent, supported by continued investments in the housing sector and, more broadly, construction.
In the extractive industries, further growth in oil and gas and other mining and quarrying, as well as an expected recovery in the gold and bauxite mining subsectors, have been projected.
With three FPSOs in the Stabroek Block, production of crude oil is slated to reach over 550,000 bpd in 2024, with a further ramping up to over 600,000 in the latter part of the year – representing a 44.7 per cent growth this year.
The sand, stone, diamonds and manganese subsectors are also anticipated to continue their momentum in 2024, with projected growth of 19.3 per cent.
On the other hand, the gold and bauxite mining industries are projected to reverse last year’s contractions to grow this year by 15.7 and 57.2 per cent respectively. The gold mining recovery is expected to be supported by higher projected declarations from the lone large operator, as well as the small and medium scale miners, to collectively amount to 500,000 ounces; while the turnaround in bauxite mining is to be driven by higher expected production from both operators, given the investments made in the sector, with projected production of over 1,700,000 tonnes this year.
In the manufacturing sector, the growth trajectory will continue this year at 16 per cent, with increases across all three subsectors, including sugar and rice. Other manufacturing is again forecasted to achieve growth of 10.4 per cent, due to the manufacturing of fabricated metal products and non-metallic products with continued construction and oil and gas activities.
Construction in 2024 will be maintained with a projected growth of 23.4 per cent, while the services industry will expand by 6.9 per cent this year with supported spillovers from the other sectors – agriculture, construction, housing, and extractives – with the renewed interest in Guyana as a burgeoning investment and tourist destination. (G8)