…10.6% overall economic growth also projected in 2025
While the economic contribution of Guyana’s oil and gas sector looms large, the growth of its non-oil economy continues to be a success story, with the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) Government revealing that the non-oil economic sector is expected to grow by 13.8 per cent this year.
This revelation was made by senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance Dr Ashni Singh, while presenting the 2025 Budget in the National Assembly. During his presentation, he also announced that overall economic growth this year will be 10.6 per cent.
“Mr Speaker, as Guyana marks five years as an oil producer, the pace of economic growth is expected to moderate this year due to the Liza Destiny Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel achieving peak production in 2024 as well as the timing of the One Guyana FPSO’s startup in the second half of 2025.”
“Overall growth is therefore projected at 10.6 per cent for 2025, at which rate we are still expected to be the third fastest growing economy in the world. Significantly, reflecting the success of our efforts at economic diversification, growth in the non-oil economy is projected at 13.8 per cent for 2025,” the Finance Minister said.
He gave a further breakdown, sector by sector, of how the economy is expected to perform. For instance, in Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry, these sectors are expected to grow by 11.4 per cent, as increased production is targeted for all subsectors. And true to its word last year, the Government has set a production target of around 101,000 tonnes for the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) in 2025.
“The sugar growing subsector is projected to turn around and record growth of 115.4 per cent in 2025. A production target of approximately 101,000 metric tonnes is set for the year, as GuySuCo continues its mechanisation and conversion efforts and promotes value-added production.”
“The rice growing subsector, building on the strong performance last year, is expected to continue its momentum and grow by a further 12.4 per cent this year. Rice production for 2025 is targeted at 804,000 tonnes, supported by a ramp up in acreage cultivated, and continued focus on deploying new and more productive varieties, and enhancing research and development.”
Meanwhile, the other crops subsector has been projected to grow by 11.7 per cent this year. This will include an expansion of the acreage being cultivated. Further, the Government indicated that it will remain focused on helping the region to achieve the 25 by 2025 food security target… namely a reduction of food imports by 25 per cent by this year.
“In addition, the livestock subsector is expected to grow by 7.5 per cent, with production expected to expand across all subcategories. This year, growth in the fishing subsector is expected to strengthen to 5.8 per cent, driven largely by increased aquaculture production. Finally, growth in the forestry sector is expected to moderate to 1.3 per cent, with a production target of 490,000 cubic metres in 2025. This is anticipated to be supported by increased production across all timber products,” Dr Singh announced.
Extractive sectors
In the area of mining, the Finance Minister also projected that mining and quarrying would grow by 10 per cent this year. This is on the back of the “modest growth” expected from the oil and gas and support services sector. Nevertheless, he noted that the gold, bauxite, and other mining subsectors are expected to record strong growth.
“Mr Speaker, the gold and bauxite mining subsectors are expected to expand further, to grow this year by 17.2 per cent and 70.1 per cent, respectively. Regarding gold mining, this stronger position is expected to be driven by higher projected declarations from the Aurora gold mine and the small and medium-scale miners, alongside an increase in Gold Board purchases, aggregating to a target of approximately 501,000 ounces.”
“Additionally, growth in bauxite mining this year is expected to be supported by higher expected production from both operators in the industry, with output from the Linden mine expected to increase by 167.3 per cent. Total bauxite production for 2025 is projected at just over 4.4 million metric tonnes,” the Finance Minister said.
Moving on to oil and gas, Dr Singh announced that the three existing FPSOs… Liza Destiny, Unity and Prosperity, together with the One Guyana FPSO that will come on stream this year in the Stabroek Block, are projected to achieve production of crude oil of 674,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year, with an expected ramp up to an average of 786,000 bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“This supports the subsector expanding by an estimated 9.5 per cent this year. Additionally, the other mining and quarrying subsector is anticipated to continue its strong performance this year, with projected growth of 29.8 per cent. This reflects robust growth continuing in infrastructure investment through the PSIP (the Public Sector Investment Programme), combined with intensified activity in private sector construction,” Dr Singh explained.
Manufacturing
With the transformative Gas-to-Energy (GtE) Project coming on stream this year, the manufacturing sector will be one to watch. According to Dr Singh, the sector is expected to grow by 13 per cent this year.
“This reflects an expansion across all subsectors, with expected growth of 115.4 per cent, 9.5 per cent, and 9.8 per cent in sugar manufacturing, rice manufacturing, and other manufacturing, respectively,” he said.
“Mr Speaker, the construction sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory this year to expand by an estimated 24.8 per cent. This remains consistent with the sustained accelerated activities in the PSIP expected this year, intensified by the continued investment in the private sector, especially in hospitality and housing.”
When it comes to the services sector, this too is expected to grow. Dr Singh explained that growth of 8 per cent is expected this year, including in the wholesale and retail trade, as well as repairs, administrative and support services, information and communication, and transport and storage. According to him, these are expected to increase by 8.7 per cent, 9.8 per cent, 5.8 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively. (G3)
