Guyana’s oil per capita to eclipse Middle Eastern oil producers – consultant

…says Guyana could end up being last major new oil producer

Wood Mackenzie, a United Kingdom-based global energy consulting group, believes that Guyana’s oil production per capita ratio, that is oil relevant to the population, is on track to eclipse even some of the leading oil-producing countries from the middle east.
According to the consultancy group in a recent publication, Guyana’s current phased oil development is expected to reach over 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) by 2028. This, in a country with just 800,000 people, will make Guyana a per capita richer country than even the leading oil producers in the middle east.
“Our analysis models almost 6 billion barrels of oil. First production was achieved in December 2019, only five years after the initial discovery. The phased development will lift output to over 1.1 million b/d by 2028, and Guyana will become just the 11th nation in oil’s history to reach the million b/d milestone,” the group revealed.
“The giant oil fields will deliver untold riches to this nation of only 0.8 million people. Guyana will, as output builds, rise to be king of the heap. Production per capita will eclipse even that of the leading Middle East producers, Kuwait, UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Saudi Arabia,” the group said.
Wood Mackenzie included charts comparing projected production figures in Guyana and its middle eastern counterparts. For instance, where Guyana is projected to have 500 barrels of oil per capita in 2027, Kuwait lags some way behind with 300 barrels per capita.
In the UAE the figure is just shy of 200 barrels per capita, while in Saudi Arabia it hovers around 120 barrels per capita. The figures for both Libya and Iraq are projected to be beneath 100 barrels of oil per capita by 2027.
What’s more, Wood Mackenzie noted that Guyana’s oil is mostly light and in keeping with the market’s increasing need for oil that is low in carbon. This means that when it comes to refining, Guyana’s oil would be low cost.
“The country’s economy will be transformed. Annual capital expenditure on the project will average US$4 billion a year this decade – the same as 2019 GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Much will be spent on production equipment outside Guyana, but considerable investment will flow into infrastructure onshore and offshore to support the growing oil industry,” Wood Mackenzie stated.
However, the consultancy group noted that Guyana could very well be the last major new oil producer, in a world moving increasingly towards renewable energy and alternatives to fossil fuels.
“Guyana may well be the last new major oil-producing nation. What’s important now is that critical lessons are learned from those who have gone before. There’s a long list of developing countries, including some in Latin America, which have struck black gold and failed to make the most of it, suffering what economist Richard Auty called ‘the resource curse’.”
Guyana, with US oil giant ExxonMobil as the operator, began producing oil on December 20, 2019, in the Stabroek Block. Guyana’s oil revenues are being banked in the New York Federal Reserve Bank, where it is earning interest.
To date, the country has received payments for five lifts of oil. The most recent payment was made earlier this month for a 997,420-barrel oil lift in February from Liza Destiny. That lift was valued at US$61 million, taking the total amount received at the time for Guyana’s share of oil to US$246.5 million. Inclusive of royalties, the total in the Natural Resource Fund account stood at US$267.6 million.
The Natural Resources Ministry reported that Guyana received its first payment of US$54.9 million for an oil lift dated February 19, 2020. Guyana’s second lift, on May 21, 2020, was valued at US$35 million. The third lift, which occurred on August 9, 2020, was valued at US$46 million, while the fourth lift occurred on December 9, 2020, and came in at US$49.4 million in value.