In a recent article carried in Guyana Times dated April 2, 2020, it was reported that the Donald Trump Administration was deploying more U.S Navy ships to the Caribbean to prevent drug cartels and “corrupt actors” like Venezuela President Nicholas Maduro. Important to note is that the Maduro regime in Venezuela is regarded as an illegitimate regime and is considered dictatorial in nature.
These geopolitical developments, though scary in nature, are not surprising, especially against the backdrop of the border controversy between Guyana and Venezuela, massive oil resources in both countries, and U.S heightened interest in Guyana. In fact, this author had written and cautioned about these heightened risks over a year ago, since the successful passage of the No Confidence Motion (NCM) against the ruling Administration in December 2018.
Therefore, in today’s article, the author wishes to represent excerpts from those articles in order of chronology – given that these warnings are now bearing rapid fruition, rather worryingly – and the implicit implications for Guyana are not desirable.
December 30, 2018: two days after the NCM, this columnist wrote, “…in the context of the recent outcome of the NCM, wherein the Government has virtually fallen; this columnist is cautious to forewarn that a situation of real political instability is hovering in Guyana should the Government not respect the outcome therein. Such a situation would not be healthy for Guyana’ economic and political climate at this time – especially with the ongoing matter surrounding the Guyana/Venezuela border and as the country is gearing up to become an oil producing nation.” https://guyanatimesgy.com/the-no-confidence-motion-and-political-instability/.
January 6, 2019: “…it is obvious the Government is not going to give up power without a fight amid the notion that the country is poised to be earning oil wealth within a year or so.”
In the same article, it was also highlighted that the Foreign Affairs Minister at the time had reported that the Venezuelans had attempted to land a helicopter on ExxonMobil’s ship. To this end, this author contended that these developments can have far-reaching detrimental consequences for Guyana. With the Russians supporting Venezuela with military backing, there can be an imminent American/Russian war in the region. Further, it was argued that these events, if materialized, would inevitably weaken Guyana within these dimensions. The attempt to land a helicopter on Exxon’s ship was a strategic move by Venezuela, and if Guyana’s political climate further weakens, the outcome could become devastating.” https://guyanatimesgy.com/the-likely-political-implications-of-the-judicial-challenge-to-the-no-confidence-motion-is-unhealthy-for-guyana-at-this-time/.
January 20, 2019: “It is of paramount importance that a situation of political crisis be averted at all cost. These situations dampen investors’ confidence and private investments become slumped” https://guyanatimesgy.com/how-does-political-instability-affect-economic-growth/.
March 3, 2019: “The manifestation of these events would only hurt the Guyanese people, especially the working class, at the expense of politicians fighting for power and clinging to power without any regard for a strong and prudently governed economy in the interest of all Guyana’s peoples. The economy is at risk of becoming standstill overall. Very little or no investment would occur during this period; unemployment would be on the rise, crime would be on the rise; and social and economic hardships would be imposed upon the working class especially.” https://guyanatimesgy.com/too-much-at-stake-for-guyana-to-be-heading-into-a-sea-of-political-uncertainty/.
June 30, 2019: “…this author wishes to take this opportunity to urge the politicians on both sides to demonstrate some level of political maturity and that this is the time to compromise in order to pull Guyana out from being viewed as a weak and fragile state and growing political uncertainty. These are not good signs for Guyana at this point, especially against the backdrop of the emerging oil and gas industry…” https://guyanatimesgy.com/the-ccj-ruling-no-confidence-motion-and-the-dire-need-for-political-maturity/.
Conclusion
As indicated earlier, today’s article featured excerpts from previous articles done over a year ago. In them the current political impasse was largely predicted, and the risks therein were articulated. These risks regarding the geopolitical tensions particularly, are seemingly being accelerated by the U.S. It is also the view of this analyst that the move by the U.S Navy to increase its presence in the region is a subtle signal to the political actors in Guyana – implying the urgent and serious need to avert any likelihood of becoming a collapsed state, inter alia, the consequences of a Government that may be regarded as illegitimate by the international community.
This notion was reinforced recently in a strong statement from the U.S Ambassador, in which Her Excellency responded to criticisms from certain sections of the political arena and made it pellucidly clear what is the U.S’ position in maintaining and preserving the auspices of democratic regimes.
Having said that, this author wishes to urge the political leaders to honour the commitment to a recount which was made between the Opposition Leader and the President, and let’s get on with it, so that stability could be restored and a properly constituted Government installed to handle the crisis of COVID-19, which if worsened would see Guyana requiring about $500 billion stimulus to rescue the economy when all this is over. We have an economy to rescue and build; people’s lives, and livelihoods are at stake. This is not time for this nonsense!
