Guyana’s projected royalties & taxes from oil to total US$13B by 2029

…country to be world’s 4th largest offshore oil producer by 2035

Guyana is well on course to becoming the fourth largest offshore producer of oil in the world by 2035, which will put it ahead of countries like the United States (US), Mexico and Norway in terms of barrels of oil produced.
This is according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which has projected that Guyana will overtake these three oil producers to become the world’s fourth largest oil producer by 2035.
According to ECLAC in their latest report on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), US$10 billion in oil investments were announced in Guyana for 2022. This is a steep increase considering that in 2020 US$8 million in oil investments were announced, preceded by US$33 million in 2021.
“Following the first discoveries of offshore oil deposits in 2015, arising from the exploration and exploitation activities of ExxonMobil of the United States, Guyana has been expanding not only its oil reserves each year, but also the oil produced and the revenues derived from the resources,” ECLAC said.
“The share of the oil, coal and natural gas sector in Guyana’s FDI flows averaged 71 per cent between 2016 and 2021, when the first investments linked to discoveries in the Stabroek block were made. Projections indicate that Guyana will consolidate its position as the world’s fourth largest offshore oil producer by 2035, ahead of countries such as the United States, Mexico and Norway.”
According to the report, Guyana’s oil is very competitive, with light crude, low exploration costs and emissions below the world average. The report also noted that royalties and tax revenues from exploration in Guyana are expected to total US$13 billion by 2029.
“In a hydrocarbon market that is increasingly competitive, in terms of both price and carbon intensity, Guyana’s oil is highly competitive. Most of the resources extracted in the country are of the light variety, with low exploration costs and an emissions intensity below the world average.”
“Royalties and tax revenues from exploration of the resource are projected to total US$13 billion by 2029 (Forbes,?2020). These figures highlight the economic importance of oil production for Guyana, and the potential for the country’s future productive development represented by the use of these resources,” ECLAC further said.
To date, there have been some 45 oil discoveries offshore Guyana, since the first oil find by oil giant ExxonMobil in 2015. Exxon has said it anticipates at least six projects offshore Guyana will be online by 2027.
ExxonMobil, through its local subsidiary Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited (EEPGL), is the operator of the Stabroek Block and holds 45 per cent interest in the block. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd holds 30 per cent interest, and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CNOOC Limited, holds the remaining 25 per cent interest.

Currently, Liza phase 1 and phase 2 developments in the Stabroek Block are operating at a combined gross production capacity of more than 360,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) using the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, respectively.
The third development in the Stabroek Block – Payara – is on track to come online by the end of 2023 with a gross production capacity of approximately 220,000 bpd. While this may be the gross production capacity, it is expected that the startup will see a much smaller number of oil barrels being produced. For instance, when Liza phase two started in 2022, it was producing significantly less than its current production.
Meanwhile Yellowtail – the fourth development – is slated for 2025 with a production capacity of some 250,000 bpd. Both these development projects have been approved by the Guyana Government.
Uaru is the fifth development and is expected to come online at the end of 2026 with a gross production capacity of approximately 250,000 bpd with first oil anticipated at the end of 2026. The development plan for Uaru was submitted for Government approval in November 2022 and it has also received project approval.
Outside of ExxonMobil and its partners – which has to date been the country’s only producer – Canadian companies CGX Energy and Frontera recently discovered oil in the Corentyne Block. The Ministry of natural resources has noted that this latest oil find reaffirms the country’s hydrocarbon potential outside of the highly productive Stabroek Block. (G3)