Hardly any support for third party in 2025 elections

Dear Editor,
As someone who conducts opinion surveys routinely and who is constantly on the ground as a perennial observer of local politics, I am in agreement with a commentary that “Third parties will not survive this year’s elections” (Jan 30) providing all things being the same around the time of the elections expected in November.
The APNU+AFC made it difficult for third parties to win seats because of their behaviour in office and their response to the defeats in the December 2018 no confidence motion and the 2020 elections. And the Asha Kissoon saga (TNM) refusing to resign her seat has worsened the public perception of third-party leadership. There is erosion in trust for third parties.
Based on consistent recent poll findings, none of the mini parties currently in the reckoning will win a seat as was also the case in 2020 and 2015. Under ‘a joinder list’, they will scrape one or at best two seats; the latter could have been the outcome had all the small parties pooled their votes together under ‘the joinder’. Ego prevented a coming together of all the mini parties. And ego will once again prevent them from grouping.
Based on findings of an ongoing tracking survey, a couple of names cropped up. But they have not shown any interest in entering the political fray. The PPP will run away with the elections, making gains from the PNC (APNU)+AFC coalition. Neither APNU nor AFC contesting separately can defeat PPP; even together it will be an uphill task for a coalition to challenge the PPP given the power of the purse of the incumbent and its spending spree on infrastructure projects, grants, etc. The 2025 election budget also puts the PPP in an advantageous position. The history of the PNC does not make it attractive to middle of the road voters.
And there is no credible third party thus far to wean support away from the PPP.

Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram