Dear Editor,
Messrs Rennie Parris and Yonnick David in a missive in another paper (Aug 29) described PPP’s Presidential candidate Irfaan Ali as an “amateur” (?) for his mid-year review of the economy. I do not know the two gentlemen and their backgrounds and whether they study economics. I did doctoral studies in economics and other disciplines and taught economics and the social sciences for some 35 years. I also regularly conduct NACTA surveys in Guyana, most recently in early August to gather peoples’ views on the economy. Irfaan is right in his conclusion – the economy has underperformed based on national expectations and the limited spread effects of growth.
The population expected a better quality of life under the present regime than what was obtained under the PPP (under Jagdeo’s tenure). However, people supporting both major political forces say they were better off under former President Jagdeo’s rule. Both Parris and David need to visit the population on the ground or homes and communities to get a true picture of the state of the economy for an accurate mid-year review. Don’t fall for only stats! Ground reality paints a different picture. Both writers would be shocked to hear peoples’ complaints.
In the latest NACTA surveys, the population would agree with Irfaan that the economy has performed very badly over the years. Statistics tend to be misleading. Indeed, the concept of economic growth tends to be misleading. So don’t form firm conclusions on growth rates. While the economy may show growth, it does not explain where growth takes place and who benefits from growth. Surely, the population at large is not beneficiaries of growth; their earnings and spending power declined. Businesses have also complained that their revenues have declined by half over the last four years. Most sectors of the economy have contracted this year although they performed well between 2015 and 2017. Many businesses have gone bankrupt over the last four years. The population is hurting badly (including in strongholds of the coalition Government) and people are openly voicing their opinions on their poor financial state of being. Both standards of living and quality of life have deteriorated since the last budget as well as over the last four years. The writers did not cite figures of poverty rates which must have gone up since some 20K lost their jobs. Suicide (including attempted) rate and domestic violence are also on the rise. People continue to migrate in record numbers.
The writers cite foreign investment. There has been some foreign investment in Guyana (primarily in mining, lumbering and energy) but significant jobs are not created to lift people out of poverty. The investments do not filter downwards. The jobs go to foreigners and locals are not benefiting. And many investors are worried about committing resources in Guyana because of the unstable political climate. The sooner this issue is addressed, the quicker foreigners would commit to increased investment in the country.
Contrary to what the writers penned, there is no economic boom in Guyana – certainly not from opinions provided by the bulk of the population. The overwhelming portion of the population is not benefiting from the cited growth rates. Sustained economic boom and benefits to the lower classes (poverty) will not come till oil reaches the international market in a couple of years.
Yours truly,
Dr Vishnu Bisram
