Having experienced one referendum and five elections rigged over the last half century, Guyanese are uniquely qualified to evaluate the conflicting claims following Venezuela’s July 28 election. Rigging does not begin on Election Day and in Venezuela Maduro’s control over the Supreme Court, the National Elections Council (CNE), the army and other armed forces were precursors. The first violated the Barbados Agreement and banned the charismatic, primary-chosen Opposition challenger Maria Machado. The second did not register her nominated replacement and ensured that her replacement was the innocuous ex-diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez. The EU was “disinvited” as observers and the ex-presidents of Argentina, Bolivia, DR, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay were refused permission to fly in as observers.
The third is deployed and poised to quell protests following CNE’s declaration without any proof that Maduro won the elections. The proof is in the “tally sheets” – the electronic versions of our “Statements of Poll” – printed from the 30,000 electronic voting machines after polls close. All parties had representatives who had to be given copies of the sheets. CNE is mandated to put up these sheets on its site, but failed to do so, claiming that the site was “hacked”. The Opposition, however, was able to collate and put up tallies on their website accounting for 83% of the 12 million who evidently voted. These showed Maduro had garnered a mere 30% to Gonzalez’s 67%.
Even friendly leftist leaders like Lula of Brazil and Petro of Colombia have asked that proof supporting CNE’s announcement be provided. The US has now accepted that González is the winner and the world awaits further actions to fulfil its commitment towards supporting democratic norms, especially in this hemisphere. Immediately, it appears to be canvassing other countries to support González as the president-elect. China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, and Nicaragua have accepted Maduro’s “win” along with Mexico, which, however, wants “detailed reports” from CNE.
It is clear that, as predicted, Maduro will not obey the voice of the people expressed through the ballots to restore democracy as the first step to create a stable Venezuela from which almost eight million of its population – one quarter – have fled his authoritarian rule over the collapsed economy. He represents a clear and present danger to a peaceful region, and us in particular, as he had pledged to work towards in the Argyle Declaration after “annexing” two-thirds of our national territory. Any hope for democratization in Venezuela now that the US-brokered Barbados Agreement has been trashed requires relentless pressure from democratic States on Maduro’s regime, demanding recognition of González as the president-elect.
The Barbados Agreement had required Venezuelan elections in the latter part of this year – for which July 28 barely qualified. We can now see that Maduro must have been counting on a distracted American response to the rigging he would be conducting because of their scheduled November elections. If, as expected, Maduro refuses to provide evidence of his “win”, the US, along with its allies, will have to rachet up the pressures on his regime both economically and diplomatically. China, Iran, St Vincent and Russia alone cannot keep the economy afloat. High-level Venezuelan leaders will have to be sanctioned and the easing of the broader sanctions will have to be reversed and even deepened. The test for America putting its money where its mouth is will be the Chevron waiver that allows oil to be shipped into the US, but which has provided a lifeline to Maduro.
One change from previous anti-Maduro initiatives that we have already witnessed is a widening of opposition in the poorer sections of the cities and countryside where their initial enthusiasm for Chávez/Maduro populism has waned as they experienced their lives destroyed and were forced to migrate even more than the elite. The decrease in the old polarisation is now palpable and will have positive outcomes in fewer private militias, or colectivos, which usually wreaked violence on behalf of the regime, deployed. Yet about 20 persons have been killed, a thousand arrested and Machado was forced to go into hiding.
The Chavistas are cornered and dangerous and even more than before, Maduro, with the support of the armed forces which he has bribed for their loyalty, might be willing to gamble for resurrection. That is make an outlier decision, such as staging an incursion into our Essequibo to rally Venezuelans around the flag and offer a lifeline to his sinking fortunes.
