New Middle East War

Following its months-long assembly of a massive fleet of warships and fighter jets in the region, US President Donald Trump yesterday announced a “major combat operation”, named “Operation Epic Fury”, after talks with Iran to prevent it from producing nuclear weapons ended inconclusively. Israel’s President Netanyahu, meanwhile, said the goal was “regime change”. These attacks followed the earlier massive bombings of Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities during Israeli drone attacks in June 2025. This year, Iranian President Khamenei has warned of “a regional war if new attacks are launched.” This is a very credible threat since Iran could use allied militias (e.g., in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen) to launch proxy attacks across the Middle East, dragging neighbours like Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Gulf states into the conflict. In addition to Israel, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, all of which have US bases, have reported being bombed by Iran.
Russia has denounced the US-Israeli bombings as “a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state” and announced it is seeking an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to mediate a ceasefire. China has taken a measured response over the last few months as tensions escalated but announced providing air defence assets to Iran. Discussions for CM302 antiship cruise missiles that are both ship and ground-launched and could target US vessels in the Arabian Sea or closer to Iran’s shoreline in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf were not consummated.
While Guyana is over 7000 miles from Iran, there will be several specific repercussions of which we should be aware and integrate into our own plans for national development and security. With Iran as the third largest producer of oil in OPEC, at three million barrels per day – and also having de facto control of the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil traffic passes – oil prices are certain to head northwards for the duration. With our own oil production to reach one Mbpd imminently, our 14.5 per cent of revenues should appreciate significantly in the near term. Analogously, since investors typically become very skittish during wars – especially involving such a major power as the US and the very volatile Middle East – we should also expect another rush into gold as a “safe haven”. This will push prices far above the present US$5000/oz. The Government’s collection of royalties should also consequently increase – especially if the announced measures to control gold smuggling take root.
There are also strategic implications for us. The US has once again demonstrated – after its Venezuelan Operation Absolute Resolve of last January that removed President Maduro to face narco-trafficking charges in Miami – that it will act forcefully to secure what it defines to be its interests. And that is a key distinction. Invocations of notions of “the greater good” will not go very far, as was shown at the meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Caricom leaders. Rather than the bombastic rhetoric of, say, ex-PN Ralph Gonsalves of St Vincent, the more measured tone of the Caricom leaders that included the previously vociferous Barbados PM Mia Mottley, which took cognisance of the US stated rationale for intervention – such as the return of democratic governance in Cuba – bore fruit. There was a joint declaration for providing “humanitarian relief” to the Cuban people.
We have reiterated the point that we are in a fortuitous position in this hemisphere, which the US has declared to be within its zone of interest. The US has reiterated its support for the ICJ as the vehicle for settling the border controversy raised by Venezuela, which claims two-thirds of our national territory. That their “control” over that country is accepted by the present Government should have some influence on their reaction to the imminent ICJ decision that should favour our position that the 1899 Arbitral Decision stands.
We should support a return to dialogue between the US and the Iranian regime over their nuclear programme, which even China had expressed concerns about in the past.