Opposition struggling in popular support against incumbent PPP

Dear Editor,
Based on latest findings from November and December of ongoing tracking poll, Opposition PNC or APNU, and its coalition partner AFC, continue to struggle in popular support against the incumbent PPP.
The PNC has been losing ground to PPP and AFC. There is significant disgruntlement with the state of politics, resulting in voter apathy that is affecting both major political parties, the PNC more than the PPP. Thus, in terms of seats, PPP is not negatively affected.
There is a significant number of disenchanted voters who are hoping that a credible and viable ‘third force’ emerges, but none is presently in the offing.
Going into an election year, if an election were called now, the PPP would crush the Opposition if the alliance partners contest separately, but if united under a credible leader, the election would be somewhat competitive.
PPP holds a lead over an APNU-AFC alliance. The outcome of an election would largely depend on who leads an Opposition alliance; if there is one; and any viable third force, if one emerges; and who is presented as leader. All of the small parties are struggling for traction, and none would garner enough votes to win a seat.
A combination of all Opposition forces under a credible, likable leader would give the PPP a run for its money, but probability of such a combination coming to life is nil. Thus, the PPP would romp home with a comfortable majority, picking up seats from the PNC. The AFC is also pulling support from the PNC. Voters complain about the leadership of the PNC and its failure to unite disparate factions, in sharp contrast with the PPP, which appears united.
PNC Leader Aubrey Norton is struggling to hold the party’s base, and is losing support to AFC Leader Nigel Hughes. Norton has no traction outside the party base. Indians have not forgotten what transpired from the no-confidence motion of December 2018, and the 2020 election, and will not vote for PNC or APNU.
Many voters once aligned with the Opposition do not see hope in it returning to office. The PNC is barely holding on in traditionally safe territory. The PNC is too divided, with four factions and with several inexperienced individuals in its lineup. Also, PNC has not offered credible and workable policies. It is a mountainous task for PNC or APNU to retain its support from 2020, especially with Norton as presidential candidate; it will lose seats to PPP and AFC.
Voters of all parties aren’t pleased with the main Opposition party, and would like to see the emergence of another force. A third force under an acceptable leader could do very well. Some names mentioned include Chris Ram, Ravi Dev, Azharuddin Mohamed and Glenn Lall, among others. But none of them has shown an interest in entering the political fray. Many among the lower classes plead with charitable donors Glenn Lall and Azharuddin Mohamed to start a new political movement. Both have a large following, but whether it can transfer into political support in a racially polarized electorate is another matter. At any rate, neither one is showing interest in politics.
Azharuddin is deeply involved in charity work, and Glenn Lall is occupied with his media.
For now, the incumbent PPP holds an advantage over the Opposition primarily because voters trust it more than the Opposition to manage the economy and to protect democratic gains.
Macroeconomic conditions are improving, boosting the PPP’s chances. The economy has been improving since 2021, although not everyone is benefitting equally from the oil revenues.
Several competent contractors also complain about not getting contracts, which they say have been doled out to inexperienced, unqualified companies or individuals. Voters are also not pleased with the performance of several ministers, and would not like to see them again in the new lineup for 2025 elections.
The Opposition has not been able to exploit preceding and other complaints.

Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram