While India is widely considered a rising economic power, having recently pipped its colonial ruler Britain to be ranked 5th in the world’s GDP rankings in 2023, we must view this against its productivity in order to appreciate if its citizens are enjoying the standard of living that such a ranking hints at. A comparison of the per-capita income in Britain ($48,910) and India ($2610) offers a hint. While it is certainly on the rise, India’s economic data is heavily influenced by its huge population of 1.4 billion. A better comparison would be with China, which clocked in at 2nd with a per-capita income of $12,540 – almost 5 times that of India’s.
However, while India’s economy boasts diversity and swift growth, fuelled by key sectors such as information technology, services, agriculture, and manufacturing, it is counting on its comparatively youthful demographics for future growth in productivity. While the median age in China is around 39, India’s is just above 28. And in 2021, the percentage of the population below the age of 14 years in India was 26%, compared with 18% in China.
But some recent comments by world-class corporation Infosys’ billionaire founder NR Narayan Murthy (father-in-law of British PM Rishi Sunak) have shaken that premise – and as such, has implications for Guyana, which also boasts of diversifying its burgeoning oil-fuelled GDP and a youthful population. Our median age is 26 years, with 29% being under 14.
Murthy declared that India’s youth will have to work 12 hours a day for the country to catch up with economies such as China’s or South Korea’s, that saw tremendous progress in the last 2-3 decades. He pointed out that India’s work productivity is among the lowest in the world, and that in order to compete with such countries, India’s youngsters must put in extra hours of work, as Japan and Germany did after World War II.
But he also included some other variables that he believes can affect overall productivity. “Unless we improve our work productivity, unless we reduce corruption in the Government at some level; because we have been reading, I don’t know the truth of it; unless we reduce the delays in our bureaucracy in taking this decision, we will not be able to compete with those countries that have made tremendous progress.”
While there has been a 2018 IDB-funded study on our labour force and other follow-up surveys, these have focused on the specific skills of the labour force demanded by the new economy spawned by our burgeoning oil industry. While such studies are absolutely necessary – especially in the short term, as specific industrial and agricultural needs are satisfied – for future economic growth to be sustainable while including the non-oil sector, policymakers will have to consider the question raised by Mr Murthy on work ethic.
For the longest while, as the economy stagnated after it reached its production frontier possibilities after the Washington Consensus-driven neo-liberal policies, the high unemployment rates excluded large segments – especially of youths from the workforce. Many of them depended on remittances from relatives from abroad to survive, and this fostered a dependency syndrome in many. Those who have entered the workforce demand large salaries now that a labour shortage has developed – without a commensurate increase in productivity. We note that Venezuelan refugees have picked up the slack in the lesser-paying manual labour jobs, even as the unemployment rate among unskilled Guyanese youths remains high.
Some in the labour movement – especially those that support the Opposition – are quite content to rail against “neo-liberal anti-worker” policies, and demand that oil monies be handed out without even a means test – which should include a willingness to accept available jobs. While we support the right of all sectors of the economy to benefit the lot of their members, we would like to point out that, only if the economic pie increases in an absolute through increased productivity from all sections, our growth will be illusory, and not lead to real development.
The Government needs to dispense some of Mr Murthy’s “tough love” to youths.
