PPP projected to win LGE 2023 with big gains

Dear Editor,
President Irfaan Ali is projected to lead the PPPC to a landslide victory in next March’s Local Government Elections (LGE). He will make significant gains even in PNCR strongholds in urban and rural constituencies.
If the elections were held now, the PPPC would win an overwhelming number of the 70 NDCs and a majority of the 10 municipalities. The poll projection is turning out to be the largest electoral victory of the party in Local Government Elections in the history of the country, with voters giving high favourability ratings to Ali’s leadership in contradistinction with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton, who scores very low on popularity ratings.
These were some of the findings of tracking opinion polls conducted in December, November, and October. The latest surveys (from October thru December) show consistency in relatively high favourability (likeability or popularity) and job performance ratings of President Ali, Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo, and Prime Minister Mark Phillips. All have maintained consistently high positive and job performance ratings in the 60s percentile, in contrast with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton, whose likeability or popularity and job performance ratings were consistently in the low 30s or upper 20s.
The polls find nil cross-over appeal for Norton among Indians and floating voters, accounting for his poor ratings. Voters overwhelmingly prefer Ali and the PPPC over the PNCR. Voters in general do not have a very favourable opinion of Norton, and by extension the PNCR or APNU under his leadership. The public does not view the PNCR or the APNU-AFC coalition under Norton’s leadership as a viable alternative to the PPPC. The populace says his recent actions demonstrate that he lacks the leadership qualities to bring people together. They note that he is brash, operates in isolation, and is not engaging. They say they are looking for a leader who is personable and conciliatory; one who would pursue consensus politics; and who would put an end to political violence, confrontational politics, and ethnic divisiveness. Not surprisingly, many traditional supporters and middle-of-the-road floating voters are moving away from the party, which may lead to its decimation or disappearance in the coming LGE.
Local Government Elections (LGE) are scheduled for March, and electoral fortunes could change by then, especially now that a new Georgetown-based political party, Independent Citizens for Progress (ICP), was launched last week. Led by well-known broadcaster Bobby Vieira, ICP is gaining traction in Georgetown, a PNCR stronghold, among the middle class and business and professional classes. The ICP is also talked about among Indian businesspersons who are seeking different leadership for Georgetown.
In contrast to the ICP, the polls’ findings reveal Norton has not been able to win over cross-ethnic support, which is key to winning an election. In fact, almost every Indian who voted PNCR or APNU and the coalition last general election say they will stay at home in the coming local election. APNU is not very appealing to them and to so many other voters who supported the coalition. The PNCR, therefore, is likely to lose at the coming LGE several seats that it won in 2018. The PPPC is a beneficiary, making gains in traditional PNC base.

Sincerely,
Dr Vishnu Bisram
for NACTA