By Sase Singh; MSc – Finance, ACCA
In this new world, cleaned data is a major part of the decision-making process at all levels, especially at the Executive levels. From what I have seen coming out of the Granger Cabinet, it is clear that these people did not learn their quants. How are they keeping up with the rest of the world?
How to manipulate and understand data helps decision makers arrive at better predictions about the future and thus better decisions for the people. If the key Ministers were keeping up with their quants, we would not today be having a GY$57 billion in overdrafts at the Bank of Guyana Balance Sheet when the Ramotar Government bequeathed them with more than GY$20 billion in liquid cash on deposit. If the Cabinet were studying their quants, we would have a better handle on the National Budget so that it works better for all Guyanese.
No effort is being made to properly identify what the Guyanese people need and creating a menu of measures that can drive a developmental agenda that can change lives for the better. Talking about the good life is nothing but hot air if it is not backed by qualitative and quantitative actions. This is where a pool of bright minds are needed. The Cabinet will always be mediocre if it continues to surround itself with mediocre thinkers who do not understand the quants.
Who really are the advisors?
If the Granger Cabinet continues to employ this army of advisors who do not have the ability to even understand the quants, then the decisions makers will not be able to make sense of everything? Being a ministerial advisor is not about how much you travel internationally or about how many cocktail parties you go to, but being the one who gathers the data, makes sense of it and then effectively communicate it to your boss and other stakeholders.
I reflect on one Enrico Woolford, one of these so-called ministerial advisors. As the advisor to the Public Telecommunications Minister, the nation is still to see how much he has helped his Minister frame the problem, gather the right information, analyse the data, and communicate the finding with the stakeholders (not only to the Minister). In summary, set up his Minister for success. I consulted with some members of the Private Sector and to date, they told me they are still to see any tangible output from this Ministry. Their biggest disappointment is their failure to break the GTT monopoly and make the telecoms sector a level playing field so that it can contribute to a reduction in their business costs.
Macro-economic consequences – why we should care
When you think about it, there is a national drain happening because we have the wrong people for the jobs in place and there will be macroeconomic consequences. Because we have the wrong people in place, most of the oil revenue is being set up to be squandered and the nation will be presented with fait accompli such as diverting significant resources towards paying debts by 2024 rather than using it to empowering and enriching the people. That is why I am convinced in my conviction that we must have a limited cash payout because the politicians must not be trusted. My recommendation of distributing US$90 million directly to adults on the Tax Register and NIS Register for 20 years will work out to just under US$500 per person per year. It is not a lot but at least it puts something into the people’s pockets before the politicians get their hand on the remaining oil revenue.
The overall story is that we are not very aggressive at spreading the wealth around in Guyana. Our inequality is already high because of the low minimum wage, the weakness of unions and very high levels of compensation at the top for the chosen few.
Conclusion
Before I go, quants are people who conduct quantitative analysis for decision makers. They specialise in the application of Mathematics and statistics to a developmental problem with the view of deriving a modelled outcome. They are engaged in short-term tactical studies that yield fast results and have an immediate impact on the nation, while at the same time sewing such a short-term approach into a longer-term national development strategy.
Can we now understand why nations like Singapore moved from a Third World status to first world status in less than a generation? But as we all know, Guyana has problems because enough of our CSEC students are not passing Maths; much less Statistics. We can do much better and better must come!
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