The end of Maduro

 The almost 13-year-long and dictatorial rule of Nicolas Maduro over Venezuela, following the death of his mentor Hugo Chavez, is over. The leader of the narco-trafficking cartel de los Solos, he and his wife were captured by the US elite Delta Special Forces early on Saturday morning and flown to the US, where he will be tried for his crimes. The timing was not fortuitous but fell on the exact date a previous Latin American drug-smuggling dictator, Manuel Noriega, was renditioned and tried by a US court for his crimes. Maduro has already been indicted in the Southern District of New York.
Ever since the naval-centred Operation Southern Spear was launched by US President Donald Trump last August, while Maduro’s ouster was certain, the exact circumstances remained open. The above-mentioned rendition of Noriega had necessitated over twenty thousand US troops – in addition to the thousands that were already stationed in the country to protect the Panama Canal. With Venezuela’s armed forces several times larger than Panama’s, there were concerns over the inevitable casualties if there were to be a frontal invasion.
From the reports, apart from the still unknown number of casualties inflicted primarily on military bases in Caracas and in three other states, there were no reported American casualties. Maduro and his wife were shown being manacled peacefully at an unknown location, from where they were flown out to the US. There have been reports that his personal protective detail might have turned him over to the US forces to collect the US$50M bounty the US had placed on his head.
President Ali convened a meeting of officials and our state security apparatus as soon as the news was received and would have initiated the plans that had been formulated to deal with the various scenarios that could play out from this exigency. One would be Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodrigues, being allowed to step into Maduro’s shoes and continue the rule of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). This is quite unlikely, however, since she has always been an unacceptable hardliner against the US – even if she went along with all the concessions on oil, drugs, US investments, etc. that were offered by Maduro but rejected by the US.
The US clearly wants a regime change. The possible fly in that ointment was the very powerful and embedded Venezuelan Armed Forces, but they appear to have stepped down since there was no action taken against the low-flying aircraft that bombed their facilities. One possible scenario would be the installation of the Opposition into office since they were widely conceded to have won the 2025 elections. However, since the most popular opposition candidate, Maria Machado, had been arbitrarily disqualified and a placeholder ran in her stead, it is more likely that the holding of new elections might confer greater legitimacy on her becoming President.
However, while, like all Venezuelans, she is convinced that Essequibo belongs to Venezuela, she has expressed the opinion that Venezuela must conform to the decision of the ICJ on the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Decision on our border. In 2023, when she opposed the referendum being conducted by Maduro to annex Essequibo, she had declared, “The controversy is being resolved at the level of the ICJ; regardless of whether we like it or not, that is where it is, and Venezuela has already acted; therefore, it cannot ignore it. The court is going to issue a verdict that is mandatory for us to comply with.” We should use whatever channels we have with the US as a “strategic partner” to insist that the ICJ process on the border controversy be accepted by any new Venezuelan regime.
While we can hope for an orderly transition, there remains the possibility that forces within Venezuela loyal to the Chavismo ideology can disrupt the new Government and create a new wave of disorder with its attendant refugee outlet. We must therefore control our borders since this new wave would contain Chavista agents.