Everywhere one looks or goes, Guyana is a topic for discussion. Guyana has become one of the most exciting destinations for investors and people looking at economic development. The World Economic Forum (WEF) is scheduled to be held in Davos, Switzerland next week. More than 60 heads of state and representatives (vice-presidents, deputy prime ministers, foreign affairs ministers, and other government officials) from more than 150 countries would be attending one of the most prestigious global economic meetings and annual events. Many former heads of state would be present. More than a thousand CEOs of the most important corporations around the world would be in attendance. There would be more than 3,000 delegates at the meeting.
Guyana is attending, but the composition of the delegation is yet to be announced. In spite of this, Guyana’s President, HE Dr Irfaan Ali, is one of the most-sought-after heads of state, at this time, for the Davos Meeting. Heads of state, CEOs, and other important leaders are requesting meetings with the President of Guyana. If the President is attending the WEF in Davos next week, he would be one of the very busiest persons in Davos.
All of this is a strong indication that Guyana has become one of the most exciting countries around the world. But in all of this excitement, there is an exponential growth in the confidence people in and out of Guyana have for overall development of our beautiful country.
The recent approval of the US$529M loan to Guyana for the gas-to-energy project by the US EXIM Bank is testimony to the global confidence in Guyana’s economy and Guyana’s social and political development. The attention development banks like the IDB, the World Bank, the CDB, the Islamic Bank, Exim Banks from the US, the UK, China, India and Africa are showing, and their desire to invest in Guyana’s infrastructure development are concrete evidence and a litmus test of the growing confidence in Guyana.
President Irfaan Ali pointed out how the local private sector was demonstrating the unprecedented confidence in Guyana’s development by investing at levels never imagined before. From August 2020 to end of June 2024, private sector investment has grown by more than 60%. This is more than three times the growth that took place in the more-than-five-years between May 2015 and August 2020. In the period 2015 to 2020, under the PNC-led APNU/AFC Administration, the average annual growth in private sector investment was under 3%. The annual increase in private sector investment since 2020 is above 15%. The major reason the private sector was holding back in the 2015-2020 period was a lack of confidence in the economic, political and social stability in the country. This has changed dramatically since 2020, with the private sector giddy in their belief that Guyana is the best place for them to invest. Rather than parking their money in overseas bank accounts, the local private sector is now enthusiastically investing in its own country.
But as the President pointed out, part of the lack of confidence in the 2015-2020 period is that, instead of encouraging private sector investment, the government crowded them out by being the biggest borrower. The growth in government investment went from $28B to more than $145B, a 428% growth, an almost 90% annual growth compared to under 3% annual growth by the private sector. When such a disparity exists, it shows that there is little confidence in the local economy and in the development trajectory of a country.
Private sector investment increased across the board, not just in one area. In agriculture alone, private sector investment grew from $12.5B to $24.6B, an increase of almost 100% in the period between 2020 and mid-2024. In the same period, manufacturing investment increased from $15.1B to $22.3B, a 47% increase. In construction, private sector investment increased from $10.6B to 20.4B, an increase of 93%. In mining, private sector investment increased from $4.2B to $6.9B, an increase of 65%. In real estate mortgages, investment increased from $88.7B to $140.2B, an increase of 58%. In other kinds of investment by the private sector, investment increased from $47.8B to $107.2B, an increase of 124%. This Guyana story is very different from the stagnant environment that existed between 2015 and 2020.
For those who want to dismiss the growth occurring in Guyana and posit the false claim that, without oil, there has been no growth, the above is the disclaimer. The truth is that the non-oil investment and non-oil growth by themselves are responsible for a phenomenal growth in job opportunities in Guyana.
This past week, two strong members or supporters of the PNC: James Bond, who was an executive member of the PNC at one time, and Selwyn Peters, announced they are supporting President Irfaan Ali for a second term. Already others who campaigned with the PNC in previous elections have been working at the local government level with the PPP. While James Bond and Selwyn Peters are the latest of the PNC strong supporters who have aligned themselves with the PPP, it is likely that this is the beginning of a tsunami of people drifting away from the PNC to the PPP. As election fever heats up, mark my word, there will be a constant stream of people drifting away from the PNC and the AFC to the PPP.
On Friday, January 17th, Minister Ashni Singh will be reading the National Budget 2025, perhaps the most anticipated national budget speech ever in Guyana and CARICOM. Last year, the budget speech lasted for 5 hours and 43 minutes. Expect a much longer speech for Budget 2025. Budget 2024 was the first time ever that Guyana’s national budget exceeded $1 trillion. Budget 2025 will be far above the $1 trillion mark. Budget 2025 would establish Guyana as the runaway winner for the largest GDP growth in the world, and set Guyana on track for repeating as the leader in GDP growth for yet another year.
