Guyanese who live in this country for most of the 50 years of sovereignty hope for the best. Most Guyanese wish that the APNU/AFC coalition can break tradition and build national unity and promote economic development so that we can all reap the rewards of nationhood. There is no question that this new Government has made mistakes. But, can the PPP, the only major Opposition party, capitalise on their mistakes? The “old guards” of the PPP (Rohee, Teixeira, Luncheon, Ramotar, Jagdeo) still maintain overwhelming influence within the PPP. A PPP Congress will most likely legitimise the power of one or more of these old guards. This means that the PPP will undergo no meaningful reforms to take advantage of the faux paus of Granger’s Government.
There is one hard fact that the PPP leadership seems unwilling to confront. The PPP cannot win an election on the strength of its Indian supporters alone. Guyana’s Statistical Bureau has not published any reliable data over the last few years. It is no secret that the Indian population has been declining since the days of Burnham. Should current trends continue (out migration, declining birth rate and cross-cultural marriage), the Indian population will be smaller than the African population in a few decades. Assuming the racial divide remains, Amerindians would emerge as an important broker group. The PPP leadership has to recognise that it is now a minority party and must develop electoral strategies accordingly.
Available data reveal some interesting demographics. Information from Guyana Census Reports and UN Demographic reports (Statistics Division) shows that the Indian population in 2002 was 326,277. It has been decreasing since 1980, when it was 394,417. The decrease between 1980 and 2002 represents a difference of negative 68,000, a downward trend that dates back to the 1980s, under Burnham.
This means that the percentage of Indians in the national population has decreased vis a vis the combined Africans, Amerindians and mixed race population. Between 1980 and 2002, the African population remained relatively stable, with a small drop from 234,094 to 227,062 between 1980 and 2002, representing a total decrease of 7,000. Traditionally, African out migration rates and fertility rates have been much lower than Indians. At the same time, the Amerindian population has shown an increase of 28,332 from 1980 (40,343) to 2002 (68,675). Mixed race also increased by 40,000 (in 1980 it was 84,764 and in 2002 it was 125,727). In essence, while the Indian population decreased by 68,000, the combined number for Africans, Amerindians and Mixed increased by almost the same number. What we seeing is a shrinking PPP (Indian) base that once controlled over 50 per cent of the electorate.
A greater problem for the PPP is the possibility of a small percentage of Indians supporting APNU/AFC. President Granger was elected with 50.3 per cent of the votes, representing 33 seats in the 65-seat National Assembly. The PPP obtained 49.2 per cent of the votes, receiving 32 seats. The PPP votes increased from 48 per cent in 2011 to 49.2 per cent (1.2 per cent), a mere drop in the bucket, despite a more vigorous campaign compared to the previous election. During the 2015 elections, Indians (comprising 43 per cent), along with the indigenous Amerindians (9 per cent), maintained their support for the PPP while those of African descent (34 per cent) and mixed ethnicity remained solidly in support of the Opposition alliance. The AFC, with Moses Nagamootoo and Khemraj Ramjattan at the helm, insisted that it can secure 11 per cent of the Indian votes to win a majority at the polls. This claim cannot be easily verified, but there was generally low voter turnout in some parts of Region Six (Jagan’s “country”). Despite the PPP argument that it lost in one administrative region, and nationally by less than 5000, a recount was denied.
Odeen Ishmael, once a PPP insider, argued that a surgical analysis reveals that the PPP desperately needs to rid itself of “old blood” who were there since 1992. The PPP needs to seek “crossover votes” among other ethnic groups, but consolidate its Indian base (its largest voting bloc), while moving away from Marxism Leninism and democratic centralism. In addition, the PPP has to develop a more militant approach in securing its own “command centres”, particularly in areas where its members were intimidated and assaulted on Election Day.
