Trinidad and Tobago go to the polls on Monday to choose a new Parliament and Government. According to pollster, Dr Vishnu Bisram, the election is a toss-up between the ruling People’s National Movement led by Dr Keith Rowley and the United National Congress led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar. Several minor parties are also in the contest but are not likely to win any seat although they could influence the outcome in some seats that are closely fought.
T&T Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley
Like Guyana, politics and voting in Trinidad is influenced by race. But unlike in Guyana, seats are won on a first-past-the-post system. It is possible for a party to win a majority of votes and still not won the elections in terms of seats.
There are 41 seats in the National Assembly; 21 is required for a majority. Trinidad has 39 seats and Tobago 2 seats. Currently, the PNM is defending 23 seats (21 in Trinidad and two in Tobago). The UNC is defending 18 seats, three are very close.
T&T Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar
Bisram, a specialist in the political terrain of Trinidad and Tobago, believes the election could go either way. He said based on the findings of his latest tracking opinion poll, the opposition UNC has a lead in popular support but not in seats.
The 39 constituencies in Trinidad have either a large majority African/Mixed or a large majority Indian. Some seats have a racial balance of both with swing voters from among the different races deciding the outcome.
Both sides have 15 safe ethnic seats in Trinidad. Of the nine marginals, this pollster has the UNC leading in three and the PNM leading in three. Three seats are a dead heat. In addition, one seat, currently leading by the PNM, faces a strong challenge from former FIFA Vice President Jack Warner, who is running under a small party, ILP, he founded in 2013.
Bisram said the “undecided swing voters” (estimated around 5 per cent) in the nine marginal seats would determine the winner. He also said that the PNM is leading in both seats in Tobago, but the small PDP led by public service union President Watson Duke is putting up a strong fight and an upset is not ruled out. If Duke and/or Warner were to win seats, a hung Parliament could be in the making.
Bisram also said the UNC goes into the election with a strong tailwind and the PNM is on the defensive over widespread disenchantment over governance issues. Only 38 per cent of the population approves of the performance of the Government. And some 61 per cent said they are worse off today than they were in 2015 when the PNM took over. The poll also shows Kamla as having a higher approval rating than Rowley and in the rating for empathy and compassion. Rowley leads in handling COVID. The PNM has won the propaganda war in the traditional media and is flooding the airwaves, social media, and publications with advertisements. The PNM is also known to have the best electoral machinery in the entire Caribbean.
Bisram concluded, “taking everything into consideration, the election is too close to call. Whichever party gets its supporters out on voting day would win the eleven marginals and elections”.
