UNC faces defeat for similar political mistakes like PPP

Dear Editor,

In opinion surveys and conversations with supporters of de facto Indian political parties in Guyana and Trinidad, the inescapable conclusion is that the PPP and UNC made similar mistakes that cost them the national government. The beneficiaries of their unforgivable mistakes (perceived corruption, poor governance, arrogance, neglect of their base) were the de facto African parties (APNU in coalition with the Indian AFC and the PNM). Many traditional supporters of the UNC and PPP abandoned their natural party and voted for the PNM in Trinidad and AFC coalition in Guyana to punish their party for neglecting them.

Trinidad holds local government elections this Monday, and all indications are the UNC will be humiliated — anger from Indian voters for the blunders the UNC made while in office. Its traditional supporters are unwilling to forgive it for neglecting them and will not come out to support the party in the local election similar to what happened last year September when many crossed over and voted PNM. The latest opinion survey I conducted shows an easy PNM (party of Africans) win over the opposition UNC (party of Indians).

There are 14 local governments in Trinidad each with a different number of constituency seats or councillors fought under the first-past-the-post system. Each government also has four appointed aldermen based on proportional representation of the percentage of votes obtained. A minimum threshold of 25 per cent votes is required to get an alderman. The UNC is not likely to get any alderman in four Boroughs while the PNM is not likely to get any alderman in one Borough or probably two. The PNM is likely to make gains in Indian-controlled Boroughs while the UNC will not win seats in African Boroughs; Indians are voting PNM while Africans are not voting UNC.

Currently, the PNM controls eight governments and the UNC six as per the results of the last elections in 2013. In May 2010, PNM controlled 9 and UNC 5. The local election was overdue by a year in 2010. After Kamla Persad-Bissessar was elected as PM in May 2010 defeating Patrick Manning, she dissolved the local bodies and held elections in July that year winning a record 11 governments as against three for the PNM, a record low.

In 2013, the PNM, under Dr Keith Rowley’a leadership, successfully rebuilt the party. The PNM captured eight Boroughs then and is now on course to pick up one from the UNC, the prized district of Siparia where Kamla is the sitting MP. The PNM is also on course to wrest seats from the UNC in its traditional strongholds that could see it tie the UNC in Indian Boroughs because of the large number of Indians who are crossing over to the PNM. The PNM is likely to pick up at least five seats that traditionally vote UNC. That would be a major defeat of the UNC.

Many Indians are crossing over to the African party because the UNC neglected them when it controlled the central government similar to complaints about how the PPP neglected its base in Guyana thinking that supporters of other parties will vote for it. Ethnic politics don’t operate like it — PNC supporters stick to their party unwilling to vote for an Indian party.

The PNC has promised to decentralise power, toughen local areas and this idea has wide acceptance. But the UNC is not supportive of federal distribution of powers.

Like the PPP in Guyana, the UNC was unwilling to decentralise power to its supporters and now its supporters are without power. The UNC, like the PPP, wants to control and dominate its supporters as a means to keep them enslaved to the party. As in Guyana, the UNC felt it had the Indian votes in the bag and did not have to service Indians to get them to vote for their natural party.

Both Indian parties erred and paid a price — loss of power. The UNC, like the PPP, abandoned the Indians to court the supporters of the other party. The Indians were not serviced, causing them to rebel. In the process, the Indian parties lost corn and husk. The Indians did not come out to vote in full strength in the general elections in Guyana in 2011 and 2015 or many crossed over and voted for the African-led coalition to teach their Indian party a lesson.

In Trinidad, the Indians stayed away from the poll in the local elections in 2013 and many did not come out in the general elections in 2015 or crossed over and voted for the PNM.

In this Monday’s election, the UNC will feel the brunt of the Indian anger with it. The PNM has benefited similar from Indian anger similar to how the PNC and AFC have benefited in Guyana. The PNM has promised to decentralise power; the UNC like the PPP in Guyana is opposed to decentralisation. It seems like neither party wants to liberate their people from political enslavement.

Yours truly,

Vishnu Bisram