When the COVID-19 pandemic burst upon an unsuspecting world at the end of 2019, the race was on to create vaccines that would stimulate the body’s immune system to produce antibodies to counter the virus. Hundreds of thousands were dying in the most developed countries.
Vaccines had been around for over 200 years, and their efficacy has been proven through the elimination of several diseases, such as smallpox and polio. Because of new techniques, a number of vaccines were produced in record time – the first one by PfizerBioTech in just under a year. Before that, the record was four years. The world breathed a sigh of relief, since, with their previous experience, the science predicted that after approximately 60-70% of a population was vaccinated, “herd immunity” – in which transmissions are reduced to very low levels – would be achieved. The concern now shifted to how quickly the vaccines would be produced and distributed, especially to the poorer countries.
But as the year went by and the number of deaths from the pandemic plummeted with the use of the vaccines – in conjunction with a regime of physical protocols to stop the transmission of the virus to others through wearing masks, etc – a new phenomenon reared its head: vaccine hesitancy. Citizens to whom vaccines were available refused to take them, and in so doing, made the push for herd immunity almost impossible. This vaccine hesitancy has erupted in Guyana with a vengeance, even after the Government moved mountains to secure vaccines to inoculate the country. This hesitancy is now being used by the PNC-affiliated Opposition as an anti-Government mobilisation mechanism, by insisting that the measures introduced to encourage citizens to accept vaccination are “authoritarian” and a violation of their constitutional human rights.
A study done in Germany in March of this year, “Overcoming COVID-19 vaccination resistance when alternative policies affect the dynamics of conformism, social norms, and crowding out”, sheds some light on the phenomenon, and offers some suggestions to policy makers who want their countries to achieve herd immunity through vaccination.
“The implementation of any policy as a legally enforced requirement or a morally framed recommendation signals to citizens the nature of the relationship in which they are engaged: hierarchical if enforced or, alternatively, as members of a community, perhaps subject to a social contract if voluntary.
“First, mandating vaccination by law may have a substantial negative impact on voluntary compliance, and may be unnecessary even if vaccine hesitancy is initially high. Given limited state capacities and citizen opposition, reaching the target in a timely manner by enforcement could be impossible and, in any case, might bear costs, including heightened social conflict and further citizen alienation from Government or professional elites. The result could be a negative cascade of public distrust fuelling vaccine resistance, requiring more extensive enforcement and, in turn, further eroding public trust. However, we also show that if vaccine willingness is insufficient to induce cumulative increases in compliance, enforcement is unavoidable.
“Second, an important anti–COVID-19 policy is to enhance public trust, possibly through greater transparency and accountability of political and professional elites. Active measures to enhance public trust could reduce the fraction of the population that would have to be required to be vaccinated unwillingly in order to surpass the target.
“Third, convincing citizens that the vaccine is effective appears to be important. A person viscerally opposed to enforced vaccination may be more comfortable believing that vaccines are ineffective, so the causation could run in both directions. But as increasing numbers are vaccinated and infection incidence falls, it may be easier to disrupt a belief that the vaccine is ineffective, which in turn could undermine antivaccine sentiments.
“Finally, our model suggests that even if the willing fraction is initially modest, reporting the prevalence of those already or willing to be vaccinated may be sufficient to induce a cascade of others to abandon their vaccination hesitancy. Conversely, media attention to those refusing the vaccine could also generate a conformist cascade of vaccine resistance.”
