Dear Editor,
President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, is contesting elections in that country due to be held on the 28th of this month, that is, this coming Sunday, for a third time in office. All the independent reports from Venezuela indicate that he will lose a free and fair election but, already, Maduro is taking steps to fraudulently manipulate the elections and prevent the opposition leader Maria Corino Machado’s party from contesting by the fraudulent manipulation of the electoral process.
Maduro, for instance, has recently ordered the arrest of 24 of Machado’s campaign team, including her personal bodyguard. In turn, the US government has intensified its pressure on the Maduro government to hold a free election or suffer the consequences of across-the-board sanctions on its oil industry exports re-imposed in April.
Nevertheless, the Reuters News Agency earlier this month reported that “the Biden administration remains open to dialogue with the Venezuelan government” after Maduro said that “he had agreed to restart direct talks” with the US government.
We know that Machado was earlier banned by Maduro’s government, upheld by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, who is now represented by a former Venezuelan Diplomat, Edmundo Gonzalez, to lead the opposition.
We also know from a statement made by US State Department spokesperson, Vadent Patel, that behind the scenes, the US Government continues to leave the door open for Maduro to hold a free election. Patel is quoted as saying “we are clear-eyed that democratic change will not be easy and certainly requires a serious commitment”.
We also know that Maduro will not hold an election which will result in him being removed from office. So, what should we expect from Maduro?
Maduro has not withdrawn nor backed down from the Resolution passed by the Venezuelan National Assembly on 21st September, 2023, calling for a Referendum approving “the creation of the Guayana Esequiba State and that an accelerated and comprehensive plan be developed for the present and future population of that territory” namely, the Essequibo region of Guyana.
This, in defiance of the provisional measures issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 1st December, ordering Venezuela to “refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute, whereby the Cooperative Republic of Guyana administers and exercises control of that area”. The Referendum was also condemned by the Organisation of American States (OAS), the Commonwealth and CARICOM. When Maduro signed on to the Resolution passed by the Venezuelan National Assembly, his words were “sooner rather than later we will recover Venezuela’s right to Guayana Esequiba. So I swear and so it will be”.
Maduro was then, at the intervention of CARICOM and Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), required to meet with President Irfaan Ali in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A meeting which led to the Joint Declaration of Argyle, binding Venezuela to refrain from threatening or the use of force against Guyana and binding Venezuela and Guyana to act in accordance with international law, including respecting the 1966 Geneva Agreement.
Maduro, however, had already violated the commitment he made at Argyle, including illegal overflights of Guyana, minor incursion of the Venezuelan military across the border, causing Guyana, on 9th April, to request a meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which resulted in a statement from the Security Council urging both Venezuela and Guyana to respect their obligations and comply with the provisional measures issued by the ICJ and commending the Argyle Declaration requiring both countries to resolve any differences in accordance with international law and the United National Charter.
While all of this has effectively given pause to Maduro pursuing further aggression against Guyana, he now faces the choice of either conducting a free and fair election and being thrown out of power with all of its probable unpleasant consequences for him or the imposition of severe sanctions by the US Government denying Venezuela access to its major market for the sale of its oil and the financial implications thereof. Neither is an acceptable choice for Maduro. He is, in fact, in an increasingly desperate situation of his own making and desperate people are prone to desperate action.
Our government is well aware of this fact which is why Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo on 16th May, 2024, announced the fact that our government had “notified all of the relevant partners, both of a multilateral and bilateral nature about the continued attempts by Venezuela to build up a presence (military) at our border in a threatening posture” and that “we are very vigilant; while watching the development; we have been working with our allies on this matter and our primary preoccupation is the retention of our territorial integrity and sovereignty”.
It is not by accident, in fact, it is with specific intent, that just this week the Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs of the US Government, Daniel Erickson, reaffirmed the US support for Guyana in the border controversy with Venezuela and, of considerable interest, is the fact the Erickson pointedly said that he was speaking on a directive from US President Joe Biden himself.
Earlier in April in a phone call with President Ali, the US Principal Deputy National Security Advisor, John Finer, had also underlined the US’s “unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty in light of threats from neighbouring Venezuela”. In February, Finer had paid a one day visit to Guyana, accompanied by Juan Gonzalez, the National Security Council’s Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere.
Question is, given the clear and unequivocal message from the US Government and equally strong messages coming from the newly elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom along with the fact that Maduro signed on to the Argyle Agreement in the presence of most of the CARICOM Heads of Government, Brazilian President Lula’s Special Advisor and Personal Envoy, the Chef de Cabinet of the Office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations Security Council, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Columbia and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Honduras at the Declaration of Argyle, would a desperate Maduro dare to attempt to impose his government’s declared intention to formally annex the Essequibo region by military means? We shall know in a matter of days, unless, of course, Maduro decides to cancel or defer an election he cannot win fairly. One thing is certain, we must be prepared to the fullest extent possible for any eventuality.
Yours sincerely,
Kit Nascimento
