Today, July 28, Venezuela votes. The date, chosen by the National Electoral Council (CNE), signals their orientation: it is the birth anniversary of Hugo Chávez, 61-year-old Nicolás Maduro’s predecessor, mentor, and promulgator of the present Constitution; the name of the country (the Bolivarian Republic) and the guiding philosophy of the United Socialist Party he founded – dubbed “Chavismo”. In similar moves by other State institutions loyal to Maduro, his most powerful opponent 56-year-old Maria Corina Machado was banned from contesting the elections by the Supreme Court, forcing the selection of the virtually unknown 74-year-old Edmondo Gonzales, as her replacement. Machado, however, shared the platform with him.
Machado has complained that security forces hampered her mobility with roadblocks while also seizing sound equipment. Dubbing the Opposition, “fascists” Maduro declares constantly that they will reject the results that will show him winning and will unleash post-election violence. In one of his closing rallies, he incitingly asked, “Who asked for the criminal sanctions against Venezuela? Who asked for Venezuela to be invaded by the US army? Who brought the guarimba [violent street protests] to the whole country? Do you want a president of the extreme fascist right?” At another rally, he declared ominously, “The destiny of Venezuela depends on our victory. If we want to avoid a bloodbath or a fratricidal civil war triggered by the fascists, then we must guarantee the biggest electoral victory ever.” Brazil’s President Lula reacted vehemently to Maduro’s “bloodbath” prediction: “I got frightened with Maduro’s statement saying there will be a bloodbath if he loses. When you lose, you go home and get ready to run in another election.” Maduro mockingly scoffed that Lula should “drink chamomile tea”.
The polls have been widely divergent, but most of them show the Opposition ahead by a large margin. However, it is widely suspected that the Chavista-led CNE will manipulate the results of the elections to show Maduro winning and of course, this will force the Opposition to protest. Venezuela has no exit polls. The Opposition plans to deploy some 90,000 “witnesses” at electoral centres but ominously, one CNE official said last week they are having difficulties in authorising them. There are supposed to be public audits performed in randomly-chosen voting machines after polls close and the Opposition has asked its supporters to witness these.
According to Venezuelan authorities, there will be electoral observers from 65 countries, and the Carter Center, the UN, the AU, and the Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA). CNE withdrew its invitation to the EU, citing its sanctions policy against Venezuela. It is widely believed the army, led by Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a Maduro ally, will play the key role in any post-elections dispute that descends into violence. Over the years, Maduro has cultivated the loyalty of this key institution through various stratagems. For its part, Opposition leader Gonzales said hopefully, “We are going to win and we are going to collect, and we trust that our Armed Forces will make our people’s will be respected.”
The US has committed itself to supporting democracy in Venezuela and after judging the 2018 elections to be rigged in favour of Maduro, has imposed a wide range of sanctions on the country and specific individuals. But with the failure of those policies to remove Maduro, they have since adopted a “hold me; lose me” attitude; vacillating between threats while easing sanctions to gain access to Venezuelan oil, which then provides a lifeline to Maduro. During the campaign, now acknowledging that one-quarter of the population has fled, Maduro blamed Venezuela’s woes on the sanctions and claimed that the stratospheric inflation has been reduced and the economy stabilised.
In my estimation, Maduro will lose the elections since even many of the erstwhile Chavistas have conceded that misguided leadership and corruption have played an even greater role in the destruction of their country. Maduro, however, will not go quietly into the night and the US, even if it were not preoccupied with its own election challenges, will not intervene directly. Speaking anonymously, American officials opined noncommittally, “The US is prepared to calibrate our sanctions policy vis a vis events as they may unfold in Venezuela.” As one Caricom PM predicted presciently during our own 2020 elections fracas, “This will not end well” and we can be dragged in as a distraction during post-election violence.
