Right now, thousands of Guyanese are registering in a database that would be used to distribute the $100,000 cash grant for every Guyanese citizen 18 years and older. The same database will be utilised as a template for future cash grant distributions. Excepting for the “sour-grapes” naysayers, every Guyanese citizen is happy to receive their cash grants. Public servants and pensioners will have their cash grants fast-tracked, and will receive their grants before the end of 2024. Subsequently, every Guyanese in Guyana will receive their $100,000 early in 2025.
What if?
What if there was no good or bad EXXON contract? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP, upon inheriting the EXXON contract, had given in to the naysayers and arbitrarily terminated the EXXON contract, incurring the wrath of the developed countries? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP government had given in to the naysayers’ demand to renegotiate the EXXON contract, causing EXXON to halt production? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP had left the oil in the ground? Would the Government have been able to distribute $100,000 to more than 600,000 Guyanese citizens? Could Government have afforded the more-than-$60B that this cash grant programme would cost?
What if the Irfaan Ali-led Government had refuted the sanctity of the EXXON contract negotiated and signed by its predecessor and Guyana had become a pariah state? Look at the brutal reality faced by our sisters and brothers in Venezuela. Look at refugees from Venezuela scrambling and struggling to survive in other people’s lands, humiliating themselves just to eat and survive. Their struggles are our answer to the “what if” question.
For Guyanese who get sucked in by the recklessness of the naysayers’ constant noise, this is what they have to ask themselves: What if there was no oil money?
For those who want to renegotiate the contract, their reality is that Guyana would have had to reduce the 2024 budget by more than $600B, and even more in subsequent budgets. If the Government had accepted the naysayers’ demand that we do the “responsible” thing and leave the oil in the ground because of environmental impacts of fossil fuel, then where would we have found money to provide periodic cash grants? In this scenario, the “what if” question is our brutal reality.
We all genuinely believe we got a bad deal; and who is responsible for the one-sided deal? But one-sided bad deal or not, Guyana is still benefitting enormously. Maybe we could have benefitted more with a better deal, but renegotiating would mean we would have to wait for many years, while the oil stays in the ground with no guarantee we would ever benefit.
In that situation, cash grants like the present $100,000 per citizen 18 years and older would not have been possible. The cash grant for every child, which would reach a minimum of $50,000 for every one of the 200,000 children in school, would not have been possible, because it requires more than $10B in 2025. We did distribute $10,000 per child in 2014, but we would have been hard pressed to increase it by much with the non-oil financing.
Each pensioner would receive at least $41,000 per month in 2025. With there being more than 75,000 pensioners, it would require a budget allocation of about $37B in 2025. Imagine what would have happened without oil. For sure, we could not have afforded $41,000 per month for 2025, with the possibility of a bonus 13th month for the year.
Just yesterday, the President announced a 10% salary increase retroactive to January 2024. In addition, salary increases would be 8% for 2025, and adjustments would be made for some public servants to move up the band. These increases would be adding billions to the national budget; but what if there was no oil money? While the naysayers preach their self-righteous mumbo-jumbo, public servants have seen their salaries increased by 60 to 75% since 2021. What if the naysayers had had their way? What would the public servant salaries have been?
In the first half of 2025, six new regional hospitals, at a cost of US$180M, will be commissioned with 450 modern beds, 50 ICU beds, 18 NICU beds, 18 new operating theatres, six new CT scanners, and modern equipment in Regions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
By the end of 2025, a modern, First World paediatric and maternal hospital, built at a cost of US$161M, with MRI, an open-heart surgery suite, radiotherapy equipment, modern operating theatre, and critical care department, will be commissioned at Ogle.
By the end of 2025, a modern, new, First World, five-storey hospital would be built at a cost of US$160M in New Amsterdam; and five new, modern, two-storey hospitals each costing US$150M would be in the advanced stage of construction at Moruka, Bartica, Kamarang, Kato and Lethem. Construction work will start for a new West Demerara Hospital; transformation of the Linden Hospital will begin; construction of a new cancer hospital will begin; and the biggest health project in the history of CARICOM, costing more than US$500M, will begin at GPHC. What if we did not have oil money?
A new, high-span bridge over the Demerara River will be commissioned in 2025. Construction of a new, high-span bridge will begin over the Berbice River in 2025/ 2026. Construction of a new bridge will begin over the Corentyne River. The Highway to Lethem will be completed in 2025/2026. A new airport and stadium will be completed in 2025 in Palmyra, Region 6. By the end of 2025, there will be no mud roads in Guyana. More than 50,000 new homes, compared to 2020, and more than 25 new schools would have been constructed. And imagine, electricity costs would be reduced by 50%.
The fastest-growing economy — with a modern landscape, including new hotels across Guyana — is the talk of the world. What if? What if there was no oil money because the naysayers had their way?
