Whither Venezuela?

We still do not have all the details of what transpired in the wee hours of Saturday morning when a US Delta Force unit, under the cover of a widespread attack involving some 150 aircraft that bombed military locations in Caracas as well and three other states in Venezuela, renditioned its President, Nicolás Maduro. Initial reports and videos showed that the US F-35 fighter jets were able to evade Venezuela’s radar defences and destroy their anti-aircraft batteries, as well as their clearly outclassed Russian Su-30 fighter jets that were on the ground.
Here in Guyana, which had been the object of Maduro’s revanchist steps to “annex” Essequibo, the government quickly offered its perspective: Over social media, President Irfaan Ali announced, “The Government of Guyana continues to monitor the developments in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the USA in Venezuela. Stability, respect for law, and democratic transition are critical to the future of Venezuela and the broader Americas. In this regard, Guyana supports efforts that uphold democratic norms and ensure that the region remains a Zone of Peace. The Government of Guyana welcomes the leadership of the President of the US in reaffirming shared commitments to freedom, democracy, and regional security. We look forward to constructive engagement in Venezuela’s next chapter in the interest of all Venezuelans.”
Guyana had faced the brunt of Maduro’s violation of international law in refusing to accept the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) declaration that it had the jurisdiction via the Geneva Agreement to assess the arguments of both Venezuela and Guyana in the former’s border controversy over the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award. He further violated international law in disobeying the ICJ to conduct a referendum on sovereignty over Essequibo and then sending a gunboat into our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to threaten an oil rig operating there. His violation of international law continued as Sindicatos, under the jurisdiction of his provincial administration, were allowed to continue his hybrid war against us kinetically, with unimpeded movement to attack our GDF troops. Finally, against all international norms, Maduro followed up his country’s 1966 seizure of our half of Ankoko Island by constructing a bridge that facilitated the construction of an airstrip allowing the launching of airstrikes against our country. Against that background, our government should not get bogged down in parsing the nuances of international law that may or may not have justified the US action.
As has been pointed out by commentators from all sections of Guyana’s society, including opposition politicians, our focus must be to deal with the strong possibility of a new wave of refugees pouring across our border, as they have done over the past decade after Maduro’s inept rule destroyed Venezuela’s economy. While we may hope for an orderly transition to a stable government backed by the US – which has declared it will “run” the country in the interim – that will revive the economy, there are a welter of challenges suggesting this will be problematic. One arises from the Venezuelan Supreme Court ordering Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to “assume and exercise, as acting President, all the powers, duties, and faculties inherent to the office of President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in order to guarantee administrative continuity and the comprehensive defence of the nation.”
While President Trump claimed the US was speaking with Rodriguez and she was willing to work with them, she has strongly condemned the US invasion and called for Maduro to be released. Most tellingly, Rodriguez also said that Venezuela “will never again be a colony of any empire.” If she were to remain at the head of a government staffed, nurtured and maintained by Maduro through the prime criterion of personal loyalty, it is quite likely that the US programme to have its oil corporations exploit Venezuela’s 300 billion barrels of oil might run into hurdles.
From our interests, Rodriguez is bad news since she has been a hardliner on their claim on Essequibo.