Dear Editor,
I write voluminously on US events as related to the diasporas of Guyana, the Caribbean and India. Thus, I have been approached by groups and media in India and the Caribbean for my views on the outcome of the US elections.
Guyanese, other Caribbean and Indian Americans have been querying me on who will win the US Presidency this coming Tuesday. Some also ask what is the implication of the outcome and which candidate is better for US-Guyana relations, US-Caribbean, and US-India relations. Domestic issues also play a role in how people vote.
The issues in the US elections centre around COVID response, unemployment, ethnic relations, immigration, economy, foreign aid, international relations, criminal justice, health care, climate change, abortion, and gun policy, among others.
In some matters, voters rank Trump as better equipped to handle them and in others, Democratic challenger Joe Biden gets the nod. Biden leads in foreign policy and Trump in economic issues. A majority of Americans tell researchers that foreign policy is very important in this election. But so is pocketbook issue. People vote on how well they do financially and who will put more money in their pockets as well as protect their community.
How are Indo-Guyanese voting? There are no polls among Indo-Caribbeans or Caribbean people. But based on my estimates of people I conversed with and interviewed, a surprising 25 per cent will vote for Trump because of how the Guyana election was resolved seeing Trump as the saviour.
An opinion poll conducted among Indian Americans by a group of scholars revealed that some 28 per cent are voting for Trump. My own interaction among Indo-Caribbeans and Indian Americans finds that in this election, there is also a higher voter turnout among both groups than in previous elections. Afro-Guyanese and Afro-Caribbean turnout and voting trend are in line with that of Black Americans.
Some 93 per cent are voting Biden. I have not come across many Afro-Guyanese or Black Americans who say they are voting for Trump. But a significant number of evangelical Black Americans, as indeed most White evangelicals, are voting for Trump.
Indian Americans who vote Trump do so because of: threat of terror against India, lower taxation policy, and the perceived threat posed to India by China and Pakistan. US and India have become very close partners under Trump to counter China’s threat in Asia and the Pacific, and Indian Americans, as well as Indo-Guyanese, feel Trump is best for US-India relations. (Many Guyanese do follow issues in their ancestral homeland, India). Indo-Guyanese who vote Trump say they do so because Republicans tend to protect democracy (free and fair elections) in Guyana.
They point to the Democrats ousting the PPP Governments in 1964 and 2015 and Secretary Pompeo, a Republican, saving democracy in Guyana.
I did an analysis of dozens of polls conducted on the elections. Biden will win a landslide in the electoral votes and also obtain majority of popular votes. The electoral votes matter. A candidate needs 270 of the 538 votes. Biden is projected to get over 300 votes. My analysis of the polls also finds that Democrats will capture the Senate and improve their hold on the House.
I must confess that the polls were wrong in 2016 – showing a Trump defeat. So it is possible the polls could be wrong again. The contest in the swing or battleground states is close even though polls have Biden ahead.
In terms of foreign policy implications for Guyana or the Caribbean or India, it would not matter much whichever candidate prevails on Tuesday except for immigration policy. Biden will reverse the restriction of Trump on US immigration. He will probably also provide more development foreign aid to poor countries of the Caribbean and Africa. He will increase COVID assistance.
But American investment, securing democracy, geostrategic security interests would remain the same relating to Guyana, Caribbean and India. Guyana will remain under US watch for geostrategic interests vis-a-vis Venezuela.
Separately, in Richmond Hill, Little Guyana, Jennifer Rajkumar is on the ballot for State Assembly. Guyanese and other American voters are urged to vote for her and for candidates they feel will best represent their concerns in Government.
Yours truly,
Dr Vishnu Bisram
