Dear Editor,
Americans of Guyanese origin and others vote on Tuesday for their next President. Who do Guyanese Americans prefer and who is likely to win? There is no clear projected winner. But Guyanese and other Caribbean Americans and minorities in general prefer the Democrat Hillary Clinton over the Republican Donald Trump by a huge difference.
Polls reveal a very close election that surprises me and other political analysts. Some polls have Republican Donald Trump slightly ahead, while other polls have Democrat Hillary Clinton slightly ahead. An average of the polls put Hilary slightly ahead – in effect a tie that could go either way. It has been a see-saw race with the lead switching hands back and forth until Clinton held the lead for most of October, but Trump caught up and even surpassed her over the last week over her email scandals. I don’t think the election is as close as the polls reveal. I will make a bold projection – Hillary will win comfortably, maybe even by a landslide.
In conversations with Guyanese and other Caribbean Americans, Hillary seems to enjoy a huge lead in preference. But the support that the Donald has among Guyanese is significant – some 20 per cent. Overall, the Guyanese percentage in the electorate is miniscule and will not make much of an impact except in closely fought states like Florida and Pennsylvania. Donald has minor (10 per cent) support among Latinos (critical in swing states) and even less among Blacks. Donald enjoys an advantage (60-40 per cent) among Whites. But his partisan appeal to Whites is not sufficient to hand him a victory. Hillary enjoys well-rounded support among all ethnicities – including a majority among White females. Overall, the average shows 46 per cent to 43 per cent in favour of Hillary. But the election winner is not based on popular votes; a person can win the presidency with a minority of votes as George Bush last did in 2000. The Electoral College (of 535 electors or electoral votes) chooses the President. A majority of 270 is needed to win the Presidency with Bush scraping through with that number in the 2000 elections amidst allegations of electoral fraud in Florida.
The way the system works is each state in America is awarded a number of electors based on its representation in the national legislature; this totals 535. Washington, not being a state, is given 3 votes for a total of 538 electoral votes (EVs). Whoever wins the popular votes in each state wins its electoral votes. So candidates court support to get past 270 votes by appealing to voters in states; the swing states get most of their attention.
Based on traditional voting patterns, Trump and Hillary will each win certain states. Based on this projection, Trump is secured for about 200 electoral votes and Clinton about 238. The battle is for the remaining EVs in what are called swing states. It is my analysis in looking at polling data that Hillary will get about 80 additional votes taking her past 300. It will not be shocking if Trump pulls off a victory given his many political gaffes. In American politics, anything is possible; but a Trump victory is highly unlikely. Americans exhale on midnight on Tuesday when the results will be in.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
