After maintaining plausible deniability on its involvement in Israel’s missile attacks on Iranian military sites, early Saturday morning, US President Donald Trump confirmed US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. He announced: “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”. American B-2 bombers carried out the strikes after travelling from an air base in Missouri, with sources confirming the deployment of 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs — marking the first known use in a combat operation. Trump warned that he could order further action if Tehran does not agree to a satisfactory peace agreement. “There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we’ve witnessed over the last eight days.”
The US has long insisted that Iran’s uranium enrichment program was geared towards producing nuclear weapons and not for peaceful purposes such as power generation as the latter claimed. As Israel launched its initial missile barrage, the US and Iran had been engaged in negotiations towards a nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But with its decision to bomb the nuclear facilities it is probable those negotiations were a diversion to keep Iran complacent.
The Iranian leadership has warned that the attack will have “everlasting consequences” and has called for an emergency session of the UN Security Council UNSC). Guyana is a temporary member of the UNSC and on Friday had participated in its briefing on ‘Threats to international peace and security’ (Iran), following the Israeli missile strikes. Noting Israel’s claim that it was “neutralising the existential and imminent threat from Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programmes” and Iran’s retort that it “reserves its right to self-defence to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity, the Iranian people and its vital national interests”, our Representative Carolyn Rodrigues emphasised: “Guyana firmly believes that dialogue, diplomacy, and adherence to international law are the only pathways to sustainable peace in the region. We call on all parties to immediately cease hostilities, de-escalate tensions, and return to the path of diplomacy.” We should continue to hold this line as the situation unfolds.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) declared, “war had stared”. But rather than an immediate and direct attack on American bases – forced by domestic pressures to preserve national dignity – because of the US overwhelming military superiority, Iran may prudently opt for a more calibrated response, such as cyber operations, asymmetric warfare via proxies, or targeting US-aligned interests elsewhere in the region. For instance, it may leverage its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime choke point through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes. This will spike oil prices.
However, as mentioned above, Iran will also engage international institutions like the UN. By positioning itself as a victim of aggression, Iran could seek to rally global opinion against what it deems a violation of sovereignty, thereby placing pressure on Washington to justify its actions. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has stated: “I am gravely alarmed by the use of force by the US against Iran today. This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security. There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world. I call on Member States to de-escalate and to uphold their obligations under the UN Charter and other rules of international law. At this perilous hour, it is critical to avoid a spiral of chaos. There is no military solution. The only path forward is diplomacy. The only hope is peace.”
Iran’s allies will be lobbied for support and a representative will be meeting Russian President Putin today. China has signalled its diplomatic support while a clearly rattled Venezuela, as expected, was more belligerent. Its Foreign Minister Yvan Gil declared: ” Venezuela firmly and categorically condemns the bombing carried out by the US military, at the request of Israel, against nuclear facilities in Iran.”
Trump has demonstrated he is not all bluff.
