Home Letters World Bank/UN database shows Guyana’s net migration rate in 2023 is 6...
Dear Editor,
Further to my essay published in the media on October 7 and 8, 2024 with the caption “immigration data disproves notion that Guyanese are migrating [in large numbers]’, a well-respected Guyanese professor of mathematics in the diaspora, Dr. Terrence Blackman, sought to challenge my thesis in an unusually swift response published in the Opposition-aligned online media Village Voice on the said day my essay was sent to the mainstream media for publication.
Professor Blackman contends that the immigration data does not disprove the notion that Guyanese are migrating in large numbers; that it is more complicated than that, therefore the premise of my thesis was misleading. The premise of my argument was that, according to the net arrivals/departures data for the two international airports, Guyanese are no longer migrating in “large numbers” compared to the “large numbers” of migration during the periods of political instability and bankruptcy of the economy in the 1980s and 1990s.
Disappointingly, Professor Blackman misrepresented my contentions, in that (i) it was never stated that Guyanese are “no longer migrating”, which he incorrectly asserted, and (ii) the other variables he mentioned that were ignored were in fact not ignored, but acknowledged in the explanation proffered therein. Conveniently, the professor ignored a stated and known fact: that an increasing number of Guyanese are obtaining passports and/or visas to travel for both vacation and business purposes.
Notwithstanding, I wish to thank Professor Blackman for his response; albeit, it was generic, lacked depth, and was unsubstantiated by any research and/or empirically constructed counter argument. This, in turn, prompted me to conduct additional research on the internet, which only took five minutes to locate the World Bank/United Nations’ database on the global net migration rates, reported by countries and regions. This data, which is more precise from an authoritative source, has in fact validated my original contention, which was deduced viz-à-viz an extrapolation of the net arrivals/departures data published by the Guyana Bureau of Statistics.
The chart hereunder was reconstructed based on the World Bank’s net migration database for Guyana. The net migration rate is the difference between the total number of emigrants (persons leaving the country permanently) and immigrants (persons moving into the country permanently). A negative net migration rate indicates that more persons are emigrating (leaving the country permanently) than those who are immigrating, whereas a positive net migration rate indicates that the total number of immigrants is greater than the total number of emigrants.
A careful examination of Guyana’s net migration rate since independence (1966-2023) shows that the net migration rate is six (6) times lower in 2023 than it was in the 1980s-90s. Additionally, the following points should be noted:
• In 1966-1992, a negative (cumulative) net migration rate was observed, totalling 390,811.
• In 1950-1983, a negative net migration rate of more than 10,000 was observed annually.
• In 1984-1990, the negative net migration rate doubled, averaging 20,000 annually.
• In 1993-2015, a negative (cumulative) net migration rate was observed, totalling 280,283, bringing the total to 671,634 for the period 1966-2015.
• In 2012-2017, the lowest negative net migration rate of 7,152 was observed in 2012, which declined further to just over 6,000 annually from 2013 to 2017.
• In 2018, a positive net migration rate was observed of 30,080; however, in 2019, the highest negative net migration rate of 24,678 was observed for the entire fifty-eight (58) years since independence.
• In 2020, a positive net migration rate of 802 was once again observed.
• In 2021-2023, most notably, a negative net migration rate was observed annually, averaging 4,000, but was the lowest negative migration rate observed since independence, six (6) times lower than in the 1980s-90s.
It is against this background that it is imperative, when considering the level of “migration” from Guyana in the current situational context of the country, that terms such as “in large numbers” must be qualified, otherwise the discussion and/or analysis becomes subjective, easily skewed, and propagandized.
Thus, when describing migration “in large numbers”, an appreciation of what occurred in the earlier period of Guyana’s post-independence history is paramount in order to be able to academically determine “how large is large” in the current situational context.
Summarily, the result in terms of where the net migration rate has landed presently signals a positive outcome for the country. It points to the successes achieved from the post-1992 decades of hard work in rebuilding a resilient macroeconomic stability framework that characterizes the economy, and in charting a path towards sustainable development. These outcomes, in turn, served to retain most of the people in country. Nonetheless, much work remains to be done in the decades ahead, aimed at transforming the economic fortunes of the country for its people.
Sincerely,
Joel Bhagwandin
