Govt built macroeconomic framework to withstand shift in oil prices – Dr Singh

With global oil prices on a downward trajectory, Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, Dr Ashni Singh, has assured that Guyana’s macroeconomic framework is robust, resilient, and fully capable of absorbing fluctuations in international commodity markets.
Speaking on the side-lines of his keynote address at the Fifth British Trade Mission to Guyana, Dr Singh stressed that the country’s economic planning has long been designed with volatility in mind – particularly given Guyana’s status as a small, open economy that is increasingly dependent on primary commodities, including oil.
“We operate as part of a global trading system, and we continue to be a small, open economy. That’s the reality,” the Minister said. “Notwithstanding that we’ve been growing and we’ve been doing very well, we continue to be a small, open economy in a very large, open and dynamic global economic and trading space.”
Dr Singh noted that commodity price fluctuations – especially in oil – are an unavoidable feature of global markets. For that reason, the Government has consistently emphasised the importance of resilience in its macroeconomic planning. “We are operating in an environment where there is and will be commodity price movements and even commodity price volatility,” he stated.
He explained that the Administration pays close attention to international developments, dedicating entire chapters in both the annual budget speech and the mid-year report to tracking global economic conditions and their implications for Guyana. The Minister said this level of vigilance is essential in shaping policies that safeguard long-term economic stability.
Earlier this month, Guyana’s offshore oil production reached a new milestone, with daily output hitting 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the Stabroek Block, according to ExxonMobil Guyana Limited and its co-venturers Hess Guyana Exploration Limited and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) Petroleum Guyana Limited.
This record output follows the full ramp-up of Yellowtail, the country’s fourth offshore development, which has achieved its initial average production capacity of 250,000 bpd. Combined with strong performances from the Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, and Payara projects, the operations are now producing at record levels.
According to Dr Singh, Guyana’s macroeconomic framework has been purposefully constructed to ensure resilience to shifts in oil prices. While strong prices would naturally benefit national revenues, he emphasised that the Government has never adopted the unrealistic assumption that oil will remain above US$98 or US$100 per barrel indefinitely.
“You cannot build a macroeconomic framework on the assumption that oil prices will be $100 or $98 a barrel forever, because oil prices will not always be $98 or $100 a barrel forever,” he stressed. “We’ve ensured that everything we do in terms of the structure and financing of the budget is not based on the assumption of elevated oil prices lasting indefinitely.”
Dr Singh further underscored that the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) has consistently distinguished itself from other political actors by prioritising responsible economic management and technical rigour in policymaking. “We are the only party that has always emphasised the importance of resilience, of responsibility, of serious, sound technical work going into building our macroeconomic frameworks,” he said. “For others, that dimension never features in the equation.”