Guyana is set to remain the fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean and one of the strongest performers globally, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected to expand by 15.2 per cent in 2025 and a further 24 per cent in 2026, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The projections, contained in ECLAC’s Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025, underscore Guyana’s continued economic outperformance at a time when much of the region remains trapped in a cycle of low and uneven growth.
ECLAC estimates that while the Caribbean as a whole will grow by 5.5 per cent in 2025 and 8.2 per cent in 2026, those figures are overwhelmingly driven by Guyana’s expansion. When Guyana is excluded, growth across the Caribbean moderates sharply to 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 1.8 per cent in 2026, highlighting stark disparities within the subregion.
“Emerging and developing economies have performed well… In 2025, the current account deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean will stabilise at around 1.6 per cent of GDP (roughly US$ 105 billion), but there will be marked differences between subregions. These regional results stem from a combination of international and national factors,” the report stated.
“The Caribbean, excluding Guyana, is forecast to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2026, at a slightly slower pace compared with 2025. Economic expansion is subject to tourism and construction trends in the subregion, which is highly vulnerable given its dependence on imported energy, high transport costs and exposure to natural disasters,” the report’s executive summary stated.
Guyana’s projected growth rates stand in sharp contrast to the broader regional picture. Latin America and the Caribbean is forecast to grow by just 2.4 per cent in 2025 and 2.3 per cent in 2026, marking a fourth consecutive year of growth hovering near the two per cent mark, a trend ECLAC describes as a “low-growth trap.”
Within the Caribbean, most economies are expected to post modest single-digit growth, constrained by high import costs, vulnerability to climate shocks, and reliance on tourism and construction. Trinidad and Tobago, for example, is projected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026, while Jamaica’s economy is forecast to expand by 1.5 per cent in 2025 and 1.4 per cent in 2026.
Against that backdrop, Guyana’s sustained double-digit expansion continues to reshape regional averages and reinforce its role as a major economic outlier in the Caribbean.
Uneven Caribbean recovery
ECLAC cautions that the Caribbean’s economic outlook, excluding Guyana, remains fragile. The report notes that weaker tourism performance, high external financing costs and exposure to natural disasters have contributed to a deterioration in current account balances across several Caribbean economies.
Public debt levels, while declining in some countries, remain elevated in others, limiting fiscal space and the ability of governments to respond to external shocks. The Caribbean’s public debt stood at 68 per cent of GDP in mid-2025, with several countries still above 80 per cent.
Growth in the subregion outside Guyana is expected to be driven primarily by services, particularly tourism, while investment remains constrained by global uncertainty and high borrowing costs.
Regional risks persist
Looking ahead, ECLAC warns that global economic uncertainty, slowing growth in major trading partners, and volatile financial conditions continue to pose risks for the Caribbean and Latin America as a whole. While inflation has eased, allowing for less restrictive monetary policy, weak productivity growth and limited investment threaten longer-term economic prospects.
According to the report, for Guyana, the challenge will be managing rapid growth sustainably while avoiding the structural vulnerabilities that continue to constrain much of the region. For the wider Caribbean, the report underscores the urgency of economic diversification, stronger fiscal frameworks and greater regional cooperation to escape prolonged low growth.
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