Now that Indian PM Narendra Modi has completed his two-day State Visit, following his attendance at the G20 Summit in Brazil, it is apposite that we reflect on the significance of that visit. While, throughout his trip, Sri Modi emphasized the cultural commonalities between his country and ours, occasioned – as he pointed out – by the presence of “three lakhs” (300,000) of persons of Indian origin, we must not forget that, while not insignificant, relations between states are not necessarily dictated by cultural commonalities.
As Lord Palmerston remarked pithily: in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests of the states.
So, what were the interests that India was seeking to satisfy? And conversely, what were ours? First, and foremost, there are the eleven billion barrels of oil (and counting) being lifted from the bottom of the Atlantic presently at the rate of 659,000 barrels per day (bpd), heading to 1.2m bpd in a few years. India is one of the largest importers of oil, and this would only increase in the short term as they ramp up their manufacturing base even as they attempt to shift to renewables. Recently, their largest refiner, Reliance Industries, was granted a waiver to import crude from Venezuela, and they have been doing this at the rate of 2M barrens monthly. However, with the bipartisan passage of the “Banning Operations and Leases with the Illegitimate Venezuelan Authoritarian Regime” Act (BOLIVAR Act) by the US House of Representatives now awaiting Senate Approval, it is clear that even before Trump’s assumption of office, new sanctions will be imposed, and India would need new suppliers.
Accordingly, it should not surprise anyone that when Mr Modi addressed a special sitting of Parliament at the end of his trip, he said India views Guyana as an important energy source, and revealed that India is interested in buying up to two million barrels of crude. Guyana’s Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat told reporters that while Guyana is willing to supply India with a large amount of crude, the matter is not simple, because ExxonMobil, the main operator in Guyana’s offshore oil production, would have to be consulted, and would have to agree to such an arrangement. He added that Guyana prefers that Indian companies bid for oil blocks, and that negotiations could occur if a bid is submitted.
India’s strategic interest is to also carve out a larger role for itself in the new, evolving multipolar global order as the US hegemonic role after WWII inexorably declines. It evidently sees its status as a leader of the Global South as one avenue for fulfilling this role. Speaking at a specially-convened sitting of the Guyana Parliament, Modi noted that many of the systems and institutions created after the Second World War are crumbling, and a new global order is needed to address the many challenges being faced by those in the Global South. He posited that, like India, Guyana could play a significant role in this regard. “Whether it is India or Guyana, we also have our aspirations for development… And that is why it is of utmost importance that the Global South speaks in one voice. This is a moment of awakening for the countries of the Global South. This moment presents us with an opportunity to work together and to create a new world order. And in this, I see a big role for Guyana.”
Earlier, Modi had co-hosted the second CARICOM-India Summit, wherein an agreement was made to further expand the existing partnership between the two. With CARICOM’s 15 votes at the UN and Guyana’s strategic geographical location in South America, Modi recognizes that Guyana can play a critical role in India’s aspirations. He emphasized that “Guyana is a gateway to the vast Latin American continent. You can become a bridge of opportunities and possibilities between India and this vast continent, and together we can further improve the India-CARICOM partnership.”
In terms of our national interest, we must insist that India appreciate the threat that Venezuela poses to our survival as a nation, and act accordingly.
