The old African proverb, “When the elephants fight, the grass suffers”, might have become a cliché but that does not make it any less true. Russia invaded the Ukraine last Thursday, after President Putin doggedly denied the US President’s contention that they were planning to do so for weeks. After the fait accompli, we are witnessing the conflict escalating. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that they immediately stop their attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops. The vote was 11 in favour, with Russia voting no, and China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstaining.
The reasons for Russia’s invasion, whatever they may be, do not justify the violation of international norms that have slowly been evolving since the end of WWII: to prevent the unilateral use of force by any country to settle cross-border issues. While Russia vetoed the UN Security Council, and will receive almost unanimous censure in the General Assembly, Putin will certainly brush that off. And that this might have a demonstrator effect is threatening to world peace.
Russia claims that Ukraine’s signalling its desire to become a member of NATO made it feel threatened, because that Cold War military alliance of former Western European nations was gradually being enlarged to encircle it in an era when the Cold War was putatively over. But Russia would know that the former Eastern European nations – including itself – had for centuries looked at their Western neighbours as their teleological end state. As sovereign states, they should all be free to join any organisation, including NATO, that exclusive club. Russia cannot have it both ways: on one hand, they cannot boast about their democratic credentials on self-determination to allow Ukraine and 13 other former Soviets to become independent, and on the other hand, place fetters on their sovereignty.
The manoeuvre of inveigling two contiguous Ukrainian provinces with substantial populations of ethnic Russians to “declare their independence” and then “invite” them in is a very cynical move. These revanchist moves simply make a mockery of international law, especially since Russia had already announced that the entire Ukraine is an integral part of Russia. The protestations that they are only seeking to neutralize “Nazi” elements that originated in the breakaway provinces and their siege of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev signal their aim to occupy the entire country.
What we are witnessing is an eerie repetition of Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler giving his “word” to England’s Neville Chamberlain and other European powers in 1938 at Munich, that all he wanted was for Czechoslovakia to cede their German-majority province of Sudetenland. They did, and we all know that Hitler took this for weakness and, within months, demanded and annexed the entire Czechoslovakia. He justified his annexation on the grounds that Germany needed “living space” – identical to Putin’s present claim that Russia now needs “security”.
The Munich Agreement has become a symbol of appeasement, and the US and the West must not allow history to repeat itself. Russia must be told in no uncertain terms that they must withdraw completely from the sovereign state of Ukraine. The present sanctions that have been imposed will prove to be ineffectual, unless broadened to include the “SWIFT” (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) financial-messaging infrastructure that links the world’s banks. The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks, and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions.
While it is recognised that this move would also hurt some western interests, this is exactly the point that must be made to Putin, who believes that Biden and the West do not have the “belly” to defend their interests. No pain, no gain. The UK’s Boris Johnson has already called for this move, even though his City of London would be hardest hit.
This is not the time for appeasement, but for a line in the sand against international bullyism.
